Montpellier France Hard Atp 250 Round of 16

Ugo Blanchet vs Arthur Fils: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Ugo Blanchet

Rank: #142
34%
VS

Arthur Fils

Rank: #42
66%
Expected Total Games: 23.2
Predicted Winner: Arthur Fils

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Player Metrics

Ugo Blanchet

Form Index: 31.5
ELO Rating: 404.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1526.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 260.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 3.3
Clay: 3.2
Grass: 2.9
Serve Rating: 54.3
Return Rating: 57.0

Arthur Fils

Form Index: 57.1
ELO Rating: 1214.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1736.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 152.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 12.2
Clay: 12.6
Grass: 10.5
Serve Rating: 97.2
Return Rating: 92.8

Recent Matches

Ugo Blanchet

Arthur Fils

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Ugo Blanchet
vs
0
Arthur Fils
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This round-of-16 match in Montpellier, France is on indoor hard courts at an ATP 250-level event. Arthur Fils is the favorite — the model gives him a 66.32% chance to win vs. Ugo Blanchet’s 33.68% — with an expected total of about 23.24 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Fils arrives as the higher-ranked player (No. 42 vs. Blanchet No. 142) with a substantially stronger Elo (1,214.26 vs. 404.83) and a higher form index (57.12 vs. 31.54). Fatigue is moderate for both but heavier for Blanchet (260 minutes on court this week vs. Fils’ 152), which could matter late in rallies or tight sets. Surface strength indices are low for both on a 0–100 scale, but Fils’ figure (12.19) is still noticeably higher than Blanchet’s (3.33), suggesting Fils is more at ease on this hard surface. Serve and return profiles tilt heavily toward Fils: his mean serve index is 97.23 vs. Blanchet’s 54.30 (a difference >5 points), and his mean return index is 92.76 vs. 56.99 (also >5). Those gaps imply Fils will likely dominate service games and apply pressure on Blanchet’s serve. Over their last three matches, Blanchet has two wins and one loss at Montpellier, including a straight-sets win in his most recent match and one long three-set match; his recent form is mixed. Fils has two wins in three, including a long match in Montpellier and a couple of solid hard-court results, showing steadier recent form and higher-level wins.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.2 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Ugo Blanchet versus Arthur Fils. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Ugo Blanchet versus Arthur Fils. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Ugo Blanchet - Arthur Fils) -2.1 Most likely spread: -3 (Arthur Fils wins 3 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Ugo Blanchet versus Arthur Fils. Positive values indicate Ugo Blanchet winning more games, negative values indicate Arthur Fils winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Ugo Blanchet versus Arthur Fils. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this hard-court match is about 10.57 total — the predicted aces skew toward Fils given his very high serve index. On a medium-paced hard court, predicted aces are moderate compared with grass; big servers still get reward here. For double faults prediction, the expected double faults are 4.47 in total, and Fils’ strong serve rating suggests most aces will come from him while keeping double faults relatively contained.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 10.6 Most likely: 10 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 4.5 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Ugo Blanchet versus Arthur Fils. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Ugo Blanchet versus Arthur Fils. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Ugo Blanchet versus Arthur Fils. Clay surface matches tend to produce more double faults due to fatigue in longer rallies.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Ugo Blanchet versus Arthur Fils. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

Final Prediction

Fils’ superior serve and return metrics, higher Elo and better recent form give him the edge in Montpellier. Watch Fils’ serve consistency and how effectively Blanchet can convert break opportunities — those will likely decide whether the match stays short or becomes a scrappier three-setter.

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