Montpellier France Hard Atp 250 Round of 32

Arthur Gea vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Arthur Gea

Rank: #198
38%
VS
Expected Total Games: 23.1
Predicted Winner: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

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Player Metrics

Arthur Gea

Form Index: 80.5
ELO Rating: 444.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1525.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 1.9
Clay: 1.4
Grass: 1.1
Serve Rating: 31.0
Return Rating: 49.4

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

Form Index: 27.3
ELO Rating: 964.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1664.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 9.0
Clay: 7.7
Grass: 7.2
Serve Rating: 99.9
Return Rating: 87.9

Recent Matches

Arthur Gea

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Arthur Gea
vs
0
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 32 at the Montpellier tournament held in France on hard courts, Arthur Gea faces Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard. The match promises to be competitive, but the predicted winner is Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard, with a winning probability of 62.03% compared to Arthur Gea's 37.97%. The expected total number of games in this match is approximately 23.12.

Match Analysis

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard currently holds a much stronger rank at 61 compared to Arthur Gea's 198. The Elo ratings further reflect this disparity, with Perricard at 964.35, significantly higher than Gea's 444.49. In terms of form, Gea has a form index of 80.49, which is impressive, but Perricard's index stands at a lower 27.32, indicating he has faced challenges recently. Fatigue levels for both players are at 0.0, suggesting they are fresh for this match. Notably, Perricard's surface strength index is 8.99, while Gea's is 1.87, indicating that Perricard is particularly adept on hard courts. Furthermore, there is a substantial difference in their mean serve indices; Perricard's 99.89 greatly surpasses Gea's 30.96, showcasing his superior serving capability. Additionally, Perricard's mean return index of 87.85 far exceeds Gea's 49.37, highlighting his ability to capitalize on his opponent's serves. In their recent performances, Gea has shown resilience, winning his last match at the Australian Open and showcasing stamina by going deep into the tournament. However, he faced a tough competitor in Stan Wawrinka just two matches ago, where he was unable to secure the victory. Contrarily, Perricard has struggled recently, losing his last match against Sebastian Baez but previously defeating Cameron Norrie. The inconsistency in results might play a psychological role, but Perricard's overall statistics indicate he possesses the potential to dominate this matchup.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.1 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Arthur Gea versus Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Arthur Gea versus Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Arthur Gea - Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard) -2.1 Most likely spread: -3 (Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard wins 3 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Arthur Gea versus Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard. Positive values indicate Arthur Gea winning more games, negative values indicate Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Arthur Gea versus Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The match is expected to feature around 10.57 aces and approximately 4.47 double faults. With hard court conditions favoring both powerful servers and adept returners, the predicted aces reflect the capabilities of both players, especially considering Perricard's exceptional mean serve index. The expected double faults prediction of 4.47 may indicate some pressure moments, particularly for Gea, who has a significantly lower serve index.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 10.6 Most likely: 10 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 4.5 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Arthur Gea versus Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Arthur Gea versus Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Arthur Gea versus Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard. Clay surface matches tend to produce more double faults due to fatigue in longer rallies.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Arthur Gea versus Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

Final Prediction

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard is favored to win predominantly due to his superior serving and returning capabilities, backed by a higher ranking and Elo rating. A key factor to watch will be how Gea handles Perricard's powerful serves, as this could greatly influence the match outcome.

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