Shanghai China Hard Masters 1000 Round of 16

Arthur Gea vs Jakub Mensik Prediction

Arthur Gea

Rank: #56
30%
VS

Jakub Mensik

Rank: #15
70%
Expected Total Games: 26.9
Predicted Winner: Jakub Mensik

Why the Model Favors Jakub Mensik

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Surface fit +6.9 Jakub Mensik
Recent record by level +5.2 Jakub Mensik
Overall strength +4.1 Jakub Mensik
Serve & return game +1.6 Jakub Mensik
Recent form +1.1 Arthur Gea

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 70% for Jakub Mensik. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Also available in Claude and Perplexity. Query these predictions in plain language: our native connector lets your AI assistant call our models on demand, no code.

Set it up

Ranking Trends

Arthur Gea

  • Current #56 2026-10-05
  • 3 mo ago #136 2026-06-29
  • 6 mo ago #137 2026-04-06
  • 9 mo ago #241 2026-01-05
  • 12 mo ago #249 2025-09-29

Jakub Mensik

  • Current #15 2026-10-05
  • 3 mo ago #18 2026-06-29
  • 6 mo ago #26 2026-04-06
  • 9 mo ago #18 2026-01-05
  • 12 mo ago #16 2025-09-29

Player Metrics

Arthur Gea

Form Index: 69.1
ELO Rating: 1848.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1849.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 358.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 39.8
Clay: 9.0
Grass: 6.1
Serve Rating: 94.6
Return Rating: 90.3

Jakub Mensik

Form Index: 58.4
ELO Rating: 1846.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1869.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 176.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 39.7
Clay: 39.9
Grass: 18.9
Serve Rating: 96.1
Return Rating: 86.9

Recent Matches

Arthur Gea
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Ben Shelton (2-0) hard Shanghai 127 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Ugo Humbert (2-1) hard Shanghai 106 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Jaime Faria (2-1) hard Shanghai 125 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Hubert Hurkacz (1-2) hard Beijing 143 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Zhizhen Zhang (2-0) hard Beijing 83 min

Jakub Mensik
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Arthur Gea
vs
0
Jakub Mensik
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Jakub Mensik is favoured at 70%, with Arthur Gea given 30%, and the match is projected to last 26.9 games. In the Shanghai Round of 16, Mensik’s serving and hard-court profile give him the advantage.

Match Analysis

Mensik’s No. 15 ranking, compared with Gea’s No. 56, underlines the gap in their overall standing. The hard-court matchup also leans Mensik, and he has the stronger serve, though Gea has the better return. Gea arrives with three consecutive wins in Shanghai, including a straight-sets victory over Ben Shelton, so his recent form is a real counterweight. He has also spent 358 minutes on court this tournament, more than twice Mensik’s 176, which could become relevant if the match is long.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 26.9 Most likely outcome: 27 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Arthur Gea - Jakub Mensik) -2.2 Most likely spread: -3 (Jakub Mensik wins 3 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Gea is projected to hit 5.7 aces and 3.5 double faults, while Mensik is projected for 10.8 aces and 3.4 double faults. Mensik’s stronger serving profile supports the ace gap, while Gea’s better return could make him work harder for free points.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 15.7 Most likely: 14 aces Per player: Arthur Gea 5.7 + Jakub Mensik 10.8
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 6.9 Most likely: 6 double faults Per player: Arthur Gea 3.5 + Jakub Mensik 3.4

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Arthur Gea

Expected 5.7 aces

Jakub Mensik

Expected 10.8 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Arthur Gea

Expected 3.5 double faults

Jakub Mensik

Expected 3.4 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

43.8% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Arthur Gea's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (40.1%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Gea’s return is the specific threat to Mensik’s forecast: if it disrupts the Czech’s serve, Gea has the recent form to make this closer than the ranking gap suggests.

Get Daily Tennis Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven tennis predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel