Montpellier France Hard Atp 250 Round of 16

Arthur Gea vs Tomas Machac: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Arthur Gea

Rank: #198
37%
VS

Tomas Machac

Rank: #24
63%
Expected Total Games: 22.8
Predicted Winner: Tomas Machac

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Ranking Trends

Arthur Gea

  • Current #198 2026-01-19
  • 3 mo ago #227 2025-11-03
  • 6 mo ago #283 2025-08-04
  • 9 mo ago #296 2025-05-05
  • 12 mo ago #322 2025-02-03

Tomas Machac

  • Current #24 2026-01-19
  • 3 mo ago #32 2025-11-03
  • 6 mo ago #24 2025-08-04
  • 9 mo ago #20 2025-05-05
  • 12 mo ago #25 2025-02-03

Player Metrics

Arthur Gea

Form Index: 75.4
ELO Rating: 497.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1531.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 39.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 3.9
Clay: 2.4
Grass: 1.9
Serve Rating: 39.4
Return Rating: 59.0

Tomas Machac

Form Index: 69.6
ELO Rating: 1504.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1700.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 12.5
Clay: 10.4
Grass: 10.8
Serve Rating: 96.1
Return Rating: 92.1

Recent Matches

Arthur Gea
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅

Tomas Machac
❌ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Lorenzo Musetti (2-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Stefanos Tsitsipas (3-1) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Grigor Dimitrov (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Ugo Humbert (2-1) hard Adelaide 143 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Tommy Paul (2-1) hard Adelaide 111 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Arthur Gea
vs
0
Tomas Machac
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This round-of-16 match in Montpellier, France (hard court, 250-level event) pits Arthur Gea against Tomas Machac. The model favors Machac to win (63.40%) over Gea (36.60%) with a projected total of about 22.8 games in the match, suggesting a relatively quick two-sets contest.

Match Analysis

Machac arrives with a clear ranking and rating advantage (rank 24, Elo 1504) versus Gea (rank 198, Elo 497). Gea’s form index (75.44) is slightly higher than Machac’s (69.62), but Machac has zero accumulated fatigue at this event compared with Gea’s 39 minutes on court. Both players show modest surface strength indexes, with Machac at 12.48 and Gea at 3.93. The serving and returning profiles diverge sharply: Machac’s mean serve index (96.14) is far above Gea’s (39.43) — a difference well over five points — and his mean return index (92.05) also substantially exceeds Gea’s (58.97). Looking at recent results, Gea has won two of his last three matches, including a Montpellier win over Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard and a hard-fought five-set loss to Stan Wawrinka at the Australian Open. Machac’s recent form shows two high-profile wins (including victory over Stefanos Tsitsipas and Grigor Dimitrov at the Australian Open) and a three-set loss to Lorenzo Musetti. Overall, Machac’s results against top opposition and superior serve/return metrics underpin the projection.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 22.8 Most likely outcome: 22 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Arthur Gea - Tomas Machac) +0.3 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match is about 16.86 total; the predicted aces skew toward Machac given his dominant serve metric. On this medium-paced hard court, predicted aces are moderate compared with grass but higher than clay. For double faults prediction, the expected double faults are 5.74 for the match; Machac’s heavy serving profile could both increase aces and account for a share of those expected double faults.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 16.9 Most likely: 16 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.7 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Machac’s edge comes from substantially higher Elo, rank and elite serve/return indices, combined with fresher legs at this event. The key factor to watch will be how effectively Gea can neutralize Machac’s serve with his stronger-than-average return index — that dynamic will largely determine whether the match stays short or becomes more competitive.

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