Dallas TX, U.S.A. Hard Atp 500 Semifinals

Denis Shapovalov vs Ben Shelton: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Denis Shapovalov

Rank: #25
43%
VS

Ben Shelton

Rank: #9
57%
Expected Total Games: 23.3
Predicted Winner: Ben Shelton

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Ranking Trends

Denis Shapovalov

  • Current #25 2026-02-02
  • 3 mo ago #23 2025-11-10
  • 6 mo ago #30 2025-08-04
  • 9 mo ago #28 2025-05-05
  • 12 mo ago #32 2025-02-10

Ben Shelton

  • Current #9 2026-02-02
  • 3 mo ago #5 2025-11-10
  • 6 mo ago #6 2025-08-04
  • 9 mo ago #13 2025-05-05
  • 12 mo ago #14 2025-02-10

Player Metrics

Denis Shapovalov

Form Index: 61.8
ELO Rating: 1564.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1606.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 252.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 10.7
Clay: 9.5
Grass: 12.0
Serve Rating: 73.9
Return Rating: 59.9

Ben Shelton

Form Index: 79.2
ELO Rating: 3844.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1752.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 375.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 25.6
Clay: 32.1
Grass: 32.5
Serve Rating: 98.1
Return Rating: 89.3

Recent Matches

Denis Shapovalov
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

Ben Shelton
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Denis Shapovalov
vs
0
Ben Shelton
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This semifinal in Dallas, TX is played on indoor hard courts at an ATP 500-level event. Ben Shelton is the projected winner with a 56.57% chance, while Denis Shapovalov has a 43.43% probability; the model forecasts about 23.33 total games in the match.

Match Analysis

Shelton arrives as the higher-ranked player (No. 9) with a stronger form index (79.21 vs Shapovalov’s 61.79) and a markedly superior Elo rating (3844.93 vs 1564.84). Shapovalov (rank 25) shows solid serving (mean serve index 73.90) and competent returning (59.87), but Shelton’s mean serve index (98.14) and mean return index (89.33) exceed Shapovalov’s by wide margins, which should be decisive on serve and in taking control of rallies. Fatigue is relevant: Shelton has logged 375 minutes on court in the event versus Shapovalov’s 252, and Shelton’s surface strength index (25.63) is higher than Shapovalov’s (10.67), though neither is extreme. Both players are unbeaten through three matches in Dallas. Shapovalov’s path featured two straight-set wins and a tougher 2-1 victory over Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (117 minutes), showing efficient baseline aggression and recovery between matches. Shelton’s route includes a three-set quarterfinal against Miomir Kecmanovic (118 minutes) and a long 160-minute match versus Adrian Mannarino, indicating resilience in longer encounters and strong serving under pressure.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.3 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Denis Shapovalov - Ben Shelton) +0.3 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this match is 16.86 total; the predicted aces heavily favor Shelton given his much higher serve index. The expected double faults figure is 5.74 for the match. On medium-paced hard courts, aces are more common than on clay but less than on grass, so the predicted aces and expected double faults reflect both the surface and the players’ serving profiles. Shelton’s elite serve rating makes him the primary driver of the predicted ace count, while accumulated minutes could slightly elevate double faults.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 16.9 Most likely: 16 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.7 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Shelton’s edge comes from superior serve and return metrics, higher form and Elo, and a greater ability to dominate points on serve. The key factor to watch is how effectively Shapovalov can neutralize Shelton’s serve and convert his return chances early in games.

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