Ben Shelton vs Hubert Hurkacz: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

The model's edge for Shelton comes mainly from overall strength, driven by his higher ranking and Elo. Shelton is ranked 9 with an Elo of 1907.9, while Hurkacz is ranked 46 with an Elo of 1725.9. That gap accounts for the largest shift toward Shelton. The model also notes recent record by level moving toward Hurkacz. Hurkacz posts a higher form index at 66.97 versus Shelton at 60.93, and his recent results include a US Open win in the last match that boosted the model's confidence at this level. Serve and return metrics give a smaller tilt to Shelton. Shelton’s mean serve index is 97.97 and his mean return index is 87.66. Hurkacz’s serve and return indexes are 96.58 and 84.85 respectively. Fatigue is identical in this matchup with both players showing 174 minutes on court so far in the tournament. Surface strength favors Shelton more based on the proprietary index, with Shelton at 48.09 and Hurkacz at 22.80, which supports Shelton’s overall edge on hard courts. Over the last three matches both players show mixed form. Shelton has two wins and one loss, including a straight sets win and a four set in his latest US Open match. Hurkacz also has two wins and one loss, with a solid opening win at the US Open and a competitive defeat in Cincinnati. Those recent results explain the small model shift toward Hurkacz on recent record despite Shelton’s higher baseline strength.