Wimbledon Great Britain Grass Grand Slam Round of 16

Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego Prediction

Ben Shelton

Rank: #10
65%
VS

Lorenzo Sonego

Rank: #47
35%
Expected Total Games: 41.0
Predicted Winner: Ben Shelton

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Ranking Trends

Ben Shelton

  • Current #10 2025-06-30
  • 3 mo ago #14 2025-03-31
  • 6 mo ago #21 2024-12-30
  • 9 mo ago #16 2024-09-30
  • 12 mo ago #14 2024-07-01

Lorenzo Sonego

  • Current #47 2025-06-30
  • 3 mo ago #38 2025-03-31
  • 6 mo ago #53 2024-12-30
  • 9 mo ago #49 2024-09-30
  • 12 mo ago #54 2024-07-01

Player Metrics

Ben Shelton

Form Index: 75.6
ELO Rating: 1647.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1711.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 522.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 13.4
Clay: 15.6
Grass: 15.7
Serve Rating: 98.0
Return Rating: 84.0

Lorenzo Sonego

Form Index: 77.1
ELO Rating: 1075.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1598.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 522.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 10.0
Clay: 8.8
Grass: 9.8
Serve Rating: 96.2
Return Rating: 84.7

Recent Matches

Ben Shelton
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ❌

Lorenzo Sonego
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

2
Ben Shelton
vs
0
Lorenzo Sonego
Hard
1 - 0
Clay
1 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming match between Ben Shelton and Lorenzo Sonego at Wimbledon marks an exciting Round of 16 clash on grass, a surface that can significantly impact player performance. Shelton is predicted to emerge victorious with a win probability of 64.80%, while Sonego holds a 35.20% chance of success. The anticipated total number of games played in this encounter is 41.

Match Analysis

Ben Shelton currently holds a ranking of 10, showcasing a strong form index of 75.61 and an Elo rating of 1647.73. His surface strength index stands at 15.68, indicating solid proficiency on grass. Notably, Shelton has a mean serve index of 98.02, which is markedly superior to Sonego's 96.16, reflecting a difference of over 5 points. Additionally, Shelton's mean return index of 84.05 is slightly lower than Sonego's 84.74, although the difference here does not exceed 5 points. Both players share a cumulative fatigue of 522 minutes, suggesting they have endured similar physical demands in the tournament. In their recent performances, Shelton has demonstrated dominance, winning all three of his matches without dropping a set. His victories include a commanding performance against Marton Fucsovics in the last round, where he won convincingly. Conversely, Lorenzo Sonego, ranked 47, has also shown resilience, winning his last three matches, though he faced tougher challenges, including a five-set battle against Brandon Nakashima in the most recent match.

Final Prediction

Ben Shelton's superior serving ability and consistent form give him a distinct edge heading into this match. The ability to capitalize on his serve will be a key factor to monitor, as it could dictate the rhythm of the match and ultimately influence the outcome.

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