Dallas TX, U.S.A. Hard Atp 500 Quarterfinals

Miomir Kecmanovic vs Ben Shelton: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Miomir Kecmanovic

Rank: #69
36%
VS

Ben Shelton

Rank: #9
64%
Expected Total Games: 23.6
Predicted Winner: Ben Shelton

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Player Metrics

Miomir Kecmanovic

Form Index: 41.4
ELO Rating: 1034.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1597.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 244.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 6.9
Clay: 7.4
Grass: 7.7
Serve Rating: 74.7
Return Rating: 67.5

Ben Shelton

Form Index: 79.2
ELO Rating: 3844.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1749.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 257.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 25.6
Clay: 32.1
Grass: 32.5
Serve Rating: 98.1
Return Rating: 89.3

Recent Matches

Miomir Kecmanovic

Ben Shelton

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Miomir Kecmanovic
vs
0
Ben Shelton
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This quarterfinal in Dallas, TX is a hard-court clash at a 500-level event between Miomir Kecmanovic and Ben Shelton. The model favors Ben Shelton to win (64.12%) over Miomir Kecmanovic (35.88%), with an expected total of about 23.57 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Kecmanovic arrives ranked 69 with a form index of 41.4 and an Elo of 1034; his cumulative tournament fatigue is 244 minutes and his surface strength index on hard courts is 6.90. Shelton is the higher-ranked player at 9, carrying a form index of 79.18 and a substantially higher Elo of 3844.93; his fatigue is slightly higher at 257 minutes and his hard-court surface strength index is 25.63. There is a pronounced gap in serving and returning: Shelton’s mean serve index (98.12) exceeds Kecmanovic’s (74.72) by over 23 points, and his mean return index (89.30) is roughly 21.8 points higher — both notable edges that should influence hold/break dynamics. Over the last three matches Kecmanovic has shown resilience in Dallas with two straight 2-1 wins (against Tommy Paul and Sho Shimabukuro) after a 1-2 loss in Montpellier to Pablo Carreño Busta; his results indicate competitiveness but longer matches (120–124 minutes) and some recent wear. Shelton has won his two Dallas matches (2-1 over Mannarino and 2-0 over Diallo) following a heavy 0-3 loss to Jannik Sinner at the Australian Open; his recent wins include a very long 160-minute match and a shorter 97-minute match, suggesting both the ability to grind and to close quickly.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.6 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Miomir Kecmanovic versus Ben Shelton. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Miomir Kecmanovic versus Ben Shelton. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Miomir Kecmanovic - Ben Shelton) -0.1 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Miomir Kecmanovic versus Ben Shelton. Positive values indicate Miomir Kecmanovic winning more games, negative values indicate Ben Shelton winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Miomir Kecmanovic versus Ben Shelton. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this match is elevated: the model’s predicted aces total is 12.97. Given hard courts’ medium pace and consistent bounce, the predicted aces reflect a balance between power and returnability; the predicted aces number aligns with that. The double faults prediction sits at an expected double faults total of 5.16. With Shelton’s significantly higher serve rating, he is likely to contribute the bulk of the aces, which will influence the overall aces prediction and could also affect the distribution of double faults.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 13.0 Most likely: 12 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 5.2 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Miomir Kecmanovic versus Ben Shelton. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Miomir Kecmanovic versus Ben Shelton. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Miomir Kecmanovic versus Ben Shelton. Clay surface matches tend to produce more double faults due to fatigue in longer rallies.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Miomir Kecmanovic versus Ben Shelton. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

Final Prediction

Shelton’s superior serve and return metrics, higher form and Elo give him the edge in this quarterfinal. The key factor to watch is whether Kecmanovic can neutralize Shelton’s serve early; breaking serve even once would drastically change the projected game count.

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