Australian Open Australia Hard Grand Slam Round of 32

Ben Shelton vs Valentin Vacherot: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Ben Shelton

Rank: #8
61%
VS

Valentin Vacherot

Rank: #32
39%
Expected Total Games: 37.8
Predicted Winner: Ben Shelton

Ranking Trends

Ben Shelton

  • Current Rank: #8 (2026-01-12)
  • 3 Months Ago: #6 (2025-10-20)
  • 6 Months Ago: #8 (2025-07-21)
  • 9 Months Ago: #13 (2025-04-21)
  • 12 Months Ago: #20 (2025-01-13)

Valentin Vacherot

  • Current Rank: #32 (2026-01-12)
  • 3 Months Ago: #39 (2025-10-20)
  • 6 Months Ago: #258 (2025-07-21)
  • 9 Months Ago: #223 (2025-04-21)
  • 12 Months Ago: #200 (2025-01-13)

Player Metrics

Ben Shelton

Form Index: 85.2
ELO Rating: 3844.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1736.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 348.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 23.5
Clay: 30.2
Grass: 30.8
Serve Rating: 80.9
Return Rating: 55.0

Valentin Vacherot

Form Index: 77.3
ELO Rating: 1443.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1542.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 348.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 13.8
Clay: 11.0
Grass: 12.8
Serve Rating: 97.8
Return Rating: 92.5

Recent Matches

Ben Shelton
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Dane Sweeny (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Ugo Humbert (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Sebastian Baez (0-2) hard Auckland 98 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Francisco Comesana (2-0) hard Auckland 102 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Jannik Sinner (0-2) hard Paris 69 min

Valentin Vacherot
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Rinky Hijikata (3-1) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Martin Damm (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (0-2) hard Adelaide 92 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Miomir Kecmanovic (2-0) hard Adelaide 96 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Sebastian Korda (0-2) hard Brisbane 87 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Ben Shelton
vs
0
Valentin Vacherot
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 32 at the Australian Open, Ben Shelton faces Valentin Vacherot on hard courts in Australia. With a predicted win probability of 61.27% for Shelton against Vacherot's 38.73%, this match is expected to be competitive, with an estimated total of 37.83 games played throughout the encounter.

Match Analysis

Ben Shelton, currently ranked 8th, boasts an impressive form index of 85.16, signifying strong performance and consistency. His Elo rating of 3844.80 highlights his standing among elite players. With a cumulative fatigue of 348 minutes from previous matches, Shelton's surface strength index of 23.48 and mean serve index of 80.92 indicate solid serving capabilities. In contrast, Valentin Vacherot, ranked 32nd, has a form index of 77.27 and a lower Elo rating of 1443.62. Vacherot's fatigue is also 348 minutes, but his surface strength index is notably lower at 13.75. Despite Vacherot's higher mean serve index of 97.80 compared to Shelton's, the difference in their return indices—Shelton at 55.00 and Vacherot at 92.48—could play a pivotal role in the match dynamics. Both players have demonstrated strong performances in their recent matches. Shelton won his last two matches at the Australian Open convincingly, not dropping a set against opponents Dane Sweeny and Ugo Humbert. Conversely, Vacherot has also shown resilience, winning his last two matches but having lost a set against Rinky Hijikata. This recent form suggests that both players are in good shape, but Shelton's consistent victories without dropping a set give him a slight edge.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 37.8 Most likely outcome: 37 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The expected number of aces in this match is predicted to be around 6.72, while the anticipated double faults stand at 4.11. Hard courts typically support a balanced serving environment, allowing for a moderate number of aces. Given Vacherot's significantly higher mean serve index, it is reasonable to expect him to contribute a greater share to the ace count, but Shelton's strong return game could neutralize some of those advantages, impacting the overall ace prediction.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 6.7 Most likely: 6 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.1 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Ben Shelton's advantages in recent form, coupled with a solid return game, provide him with an edge in this matchup. One key factor to watch will be how the players handle their serve, particularly in crucial moments, as this could determine the outcome of tightly contested games.

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