Australian Open Australia Hard Grand Slam Round of 32

Ben Shelton vs Valentin Vacherot: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Ben Shelton

Rank: #8
61%
VS

Valentin Vacherot

Rank: #32
39%
Expected Total Games: 37.8
Predicted Winner: Ben Shelton

Also available in Claude. Query these predictions in plain language — our native connector lets Claude call our models on demand, no code.

Set it up

Player Metrics

Ben Shelton

Form Index: 85.2
ELO Rating: 3844.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1736.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 348.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 23.5
Clay: 30.2
Grass: 30.8
Serve Rating: 80.9
Return Rating: 55.0

Valentin Vacherot

Form Index: 77.3
ELO Rating: 1443.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1542.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 348.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 13.8
Clay: 11.0
Grass: 12.8
Serve Rating: 97.8
Return Rating: 92.5

Recent Matches

Ben Shelton

Valentin Vacherot

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Ben Shelton
vs
0
Valentin Vacherot
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 32 at the Australian Open, Ben Shelton faces Valentin Vacherot on hard courts in Australia. With a predicted win probability of 61.27% for Shelton against Vacherot's 38.73%, this match is expected to be competitive, with an estimated total of 37.83 games played throughout the encounter.

Match Analysis

Ben Shelton, currently ranked 8th, boasts an impressive form index of 85.16, signifying strong performance and consistency. His Elo rating of 3844.80 highlights his standing among elite players. With a cumulative fatigue of 348 minutes from previous matches, Shelton's surface strength index of 23.48 and mean serve index of 80.92 indicate solid serving capabilities. In contrast, Valentin Vacherot, ranked 32nd, has a form index of 77.27 and a lower Elo rating of 1443.62. Vacherot's fatigue is also 348 minutes, but his surface strength index is notably lower at 13.75. Despite Vacherot's higher mean serve index of 97.80 compared to Shelton's, the difference in their return indices—Shelton at 55.00 and Vacherot at 92.48—could play a pivotal role in the match dynamics. Both players have demonstrated strong performances in their recent matches. Shelton won his last two matches at the Australian Open convincingly, not dropping a set against opponents Dane Sweeny and Ugo Humbert. Conversely, Vacherot has also shown resilience, winning his last two matches but having lost a set against Rinky Hijikata. This recent form suggests that both players are in good shape, but Shelton's consistent victories without dropping a set give him a slight edge.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 37.8 Most likely outcome: 37 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Ben Shelton versus Valentin Vacherot. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Ben Shelton versus Valentin Vacherot. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Ben Shelton - Valentin Vacherot) -0.5 Most likely spread: -1 (Valentin Vacherot wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Ben Shelton versus Valentin Vacherot. Positive values indicate Ben Shelton winning more games, negative values indicate Valentin Vacherot winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Ben Shelton versus Valentin Vacherot. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The expected number of aces in this match is predicted to be around 6.72, while the anticipated double faults stand at 4.11. Hard courts typically support a balanced serving environment, allowing for a moderate number of aces. Given Vacherot's significantly higher mean serve index, it is reasonable to expect him to contribute a greater share to the ace count, but Shelton's strong return game could neutralize some of those advantages, impacting the overall ace prediction.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 6.7 Most likely: 6 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 4.1 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Ben Shelton versus Valentin Vacherot. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Ben Shelton versus Valentin Vacherot. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Ben Shelton versus Valentin Vacherot. Clay surface matches tend to produce more double faults due to fatigue in longer rallies.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Ben Shelton versus Valentin Vacherot. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

Final Prediction

Ben Shelton's advantages in recent form, coupled with a solid return game, provide him with an edge in this matchup. One key factor to watch will be how the players handle their serve, particularly in crucial moments, as this could determine the outcome of tightly contested games.

Get Daily Tennis Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven tennis predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel