Australian Open Australia Hard Grand Slam Round of 128

Benjamin Bonzi vs Cameron Norrie: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Benjamin Bonzi

Rank: #99
33%
VS

Cameron Norrie

Rank: #28
67%
Expected Total Games: 39.4
Predicted Winner: Cameron Norrie

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Ranking Trends

Benjamin Bonzi

  • Current #99 2026-01-05
  • 3 mo ago #54 2025-10-20
  • 6 mo ago #69 2025-07-21
  • 9 mo ago #62 2025-04-21
  • 12 mo ago #64 2025-01-13

Cameron Norrie

  • Current #28 2026-01-05
  • 3 mo ago #35 2025-10-20
  • 6 mo ago #41 2025-07-21
  • 9 mo ago #91 2025-04-21
  • 12 mo ago #52 2025-01-13

Player Metrics

Benjamin Bonzi

Form Index: 21.6
ELO Rating: 606.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1569.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 6.2
Clay: 3.7
Grass: 5.1
Serve Rating: 72.0
Return Rating: 67.0

Cameron Norrie

Form Index: 44.8
ELO Rating: 1404.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1612.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 29.1
Clay: 33.8
Grass: 31.0
Serve Rating: 97.8
Return Rating: 94.6

Recent Matches

Benjamin Bonzi
❌ ❌ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Quentin Halys (0-2) hard Adelaide 82 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Ethan Quinn (1-2) hard Brisbane 127 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Jiri Lehecka (1-2) hard Brussels 114 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Valentin Royer (2-1) hard Brussels 127 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Reilly Opelka (2-0) hard Brussels 69 min

Cameron Norrie
❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Benjamin Bonzi
vs
0
Cameron Norrie
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 128 at the Australian Open, set on the hard courts of Australia, Benjamin Bonzi faces Cameron Norrie. With a predicted win probability of 67.10% for Norrie compared to 32.90% for Bonzi, the matchup suggests a competitive encounter. Analysts expect approximately 39.44 total games to unfold during this contest.

Match Analysis

Cameron Norrie, currently ranked 28th, has demonstrated superior recent form with a form index of 44.76 and an Elo rating of 1404.07. His surface strength index of 29.06 indicates a strong performance on hard courts, supported by an impressive mean serve index of 97.82 and a mean return index of 94.59. In contrast, Benjamin Bonzi, ranked 99th, has a lower form index of 21.62 and an Elo rating of 606.85, suggesting he has struggled recently. With a surface strength index of 6.18, Bonzi's mean serve index of 72.05 and mean return index of 67.00 reveal a significant gap in serving and returning ability compared to Norrie, particularly in terms of serving where the difference exceeds 25 points. In their recent performances, Norrie has faced challenges but managed a victory against Hugo Gaston, while Bonzi has suffered losses in his last three matches, demonstrating a decline in form. Norrie's win over Gaston highlights his potential to rebound effectively, while Bonzi's struggles put him at a disadvantage heading into this matchup.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 39.4 Most likely outcome: 39 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Benjamin Bonzi - Cameron Norrie) -0.5 Most likely spread: -1 (Cameron Norrie wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The match is expected to yield around 6.72 aces, with a predicted 4.11 double faults. Given that both players are competing on hard courts, which offer a balanced playing surface, the ace count should be moderate. However, with Norrie's significantly higher mean serve index, he may contribute more to the predicted aces than Bonzi, who might struggle to keep pace in this department.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 6.7 Most likely: 6 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.1 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Cameron Norrie's edge lies in his higher ranking, superior serving and returning metrics, and recent match performance. The key factor to watch during the game will be how effectively Bonzi can respond to Norrie’s powerful serves and maintain pressure during rallies.

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