Marseille France Hard Atp 250 Round of 16

Borna Gojo vs Daniel Altmaier Prediction

Borna Gojo

Rank: #148
50%
VS

Daniel Altmaier

Rank: #65
50%
Expected Total Games: 24.4
Predicted Winner: Daniel Altmaier

Why the Model Favors Daniel Altmaier

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Serve & return game +4.3 Borna Gojo
Overall strength +3.1 Daniel Altmaier
Recent form +2.5 Daniel Altmaier
Surface fit +2.2 Borna Gojo
Overall record & opposition quality +1.2 Daniel Altmaier

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 50% for Daniel Altmaier. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Borna Gojo

  • Current #148 2026-10-19
  • 3 mo ago #169 2026-07-20
  • 6 mo ago #150 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #289 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #221 2025-10-20

Daniel Altmaier

  • Current #65 2026-10-19
  • 3 mo ago #61 2026-07-20
  • 6 mo ago #55 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #44 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #51 2025-10-20

Player Metrics

Borna Gojo

Form Index: 53.2
ELO Rating: 1570.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1653.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 347.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 14.8
Clay: 16.6
Grass: 5.9
Serve Rating: 96.5
Return Rating: 88.5

Daniel Altmaier

Form Index: 39.7
ELO Rating: 1596.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1628.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 172.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 16.4
Clay: 20.0
Grass: 10.1
Serve Rating: 95.3
Return Rating: 85.1

Recent Matches

Borna Gojo
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

Daniel Altmaier
✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Titouan Droguet (2-1) hard Marseille 172 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Ben Shelton (0-2) hard Shanghai 117 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Holger Rune (2-1) hard Shanghai 135 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Jie Cui (0-2) hard Beijing 77 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Zachary Svajda (1-3) hard Us Open 174 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Borna Gojo
vs
0
Daniel Altmaier
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Altmaier is the narrow pick, with his win probability rounding to 50% and Gojo’s also rounding to 50%. The match is projected to feature 24.4 total games.

Match Analysis

Gojo’s serve and return game is the strongest counterweight: he rates better in both departments, and his hard-court fit is also marginally stronger. He has won three straight matches in Marseille, including straight-set wins over Arthur Fery and Vitaliy Sachko, though his run has cost 347 minutes on court. Altmaier’s case rests on broader strength and quality of opposition, reflected in his No. 65 ranking compared with Gojo at No. 148. His recent results include a win over Holger Rune in Shanghai and a Marseille victory over Titouan Droguet. He has spent 172 minutes on court, leaving him much fresher than Gojo.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 24.4 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Borna Gojo - Daniel Altmaier) +0.4 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Gojo is projected for 10.2 aces and 1.9 double faults, against 8.8 aces and 2.4 double faults for Altmaier. Gojo’s stronger serving profile helps explain the ace gap, while the hard court’s consistent bounce should give both players a reliable platform to serve from.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 17.5 Most likely: 16 aces Per player: Borna Gojo 10.2 + Daniel Altmaier 8.8
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.3 Most likely: 3 double faults Per player: Borna Gojo 1.9 + Daniel Altmaier 2.4

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Borna Gojo

Expected 10.2 aces

Daniel Altmaier

Expected 8.8 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Borna Gojo

Expected 1.9 double faults

Daniel Altmaier

Expected 2.4 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

50.1% Predicted: Tiebreak likely

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Borna Gojo's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (31.1%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

The forecast could turn if Gojo’s serve and return advantage outweighs his heavier workload. That is his best chance to beat Altmaier.

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