Winston Salem NC, U.S.A. Hard Atp 250 Round of 16

Botic van de Zandschulp vs Luciano Darderi: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Botic van de Zandschulp

Rank: #59
48%
VS

Luciano Darderi

Rank: #20
52%
Expected Total Games: 25.4
Predicted Winner: Luciano Darderi

Why the Model Favors Luciano Darderi

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Overall strength +2.8 Luciano Darderi
Serve & return game +2.6 Botic van de Zandschulp
Age +2.3 Luciano Darderi
Recent form +2.2 Botic van de Zandschulp
Overall record & opposition quality +1.8 Luciano Darderi

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 52% for Luciano Darderi. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Player Metrics

Botic van de Zandschulp

Form Index: 50.7
ELO Rating: 1696.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1726.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 70.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 29.3
Clay: 15.4
Grass: 10.1
Serve Rating: 96.1
Return Rating: 90.5

Luciano Darderi

Form Index: 48.7
ELO Rating: 1732.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1795.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 140.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 23.3
Clay: 32.5
Grass: 15.5
Serve Rating: 95.5
Return Rating: 87.1

Recent Matches

Botic van de Zandschulp

Luciano Darderi

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Botic van de Zandschulp
vs
0
Luciano Darderi
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Winston-Salem, North Carolina. Round of 16 on outdoor hard courts at an ATP 250 event. The model gives a narrow edge to Luciano Darderi, 51.82% to win, over Botic van de Zandschulp at 48.18%. The match is expected to be tight, with a predicted total of about 25.43 games.

Match Analysis

The model’s edge for Darderi comes mainly from overall strength, with Elo and ranking advantages nudging the prediction his way. Darderi sits at rank 20 with an Elo of 1732.14, compared with van de Zandschulp at rank 59 and Elo 1696.45. Overall record and opposition quality also slightly favor Darderi. Age is another factor the model favored toward Darderi. The data do not include ages to quantify that directly, but the engine counted it as a small contributing factor. Botic earns credit on serve and return, which pushed probability toward him. His mean serve index is 96.07 and his mean return index is 90.49, both a touch higher than Darderi’s serve 95.53 and return 87.14. Recent form also leans toward van de Zandschulp. Over their last three matches, Botic has two wins and one loss, including a straight sets win in Winston-Salem and a long win in Cincinnati earlier. Darderi has one win and two losses in his last three, although his most recent match here was a 2-1 victory after a long 140 minute contest. Fatigue is a visible contrast: Botic has logged 70 minutes in this tournament, while Darderi has 140 minutes, which could matter late in tight rallies or on serve hold patterns. Surface strength indices are modest for both players, with Botic at 29.33 and Darderi at 23.28.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 25.4 Most likely outcome: 25 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Botic van de Zandschulp versus Luciano Darderi. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Botic van de Zandschulp versus Luciano Darderi. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Botic van de Zandschulp - Luciano Darderi) -0.2 Most likely spread: -1 (Luciano Darderi wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Botic van de Zandschulp versus Luciano Darderi. Positive values indicate Botic van de Zandschulp winning more games, negative values indicate Luciano Darderi winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Botic van de Zandschulp versus Luciano Darderi. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction calls for 13.21 total aces in the match, with predicted aces of 7.35 for van de Zandschulp and 6.18 for Darderi. The expected double faults total is 6.84, split into 3.95 for Botic and 2.93 for Luciano. On medium-paced hard courts, these numbers are consistent with a balanced serve match where both power and return play matter. Neither player posts a large serving gap by the mean serve index, so the per player ace projections remain close.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 13.2 Most likely: 11 aces Per player: Botic van de Zandschulp 7.3 + Luciano Darderi 6.2
Expected Total Double Faults 6.8 Most likely: 5 double faults Per player: Botic van de Zandschulp 4.0 + Luciano Darderi 2.9

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Botic van de Zandschulp versus Luciano Darderi. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Botic van de Zandschulp versus Luciano Darderi. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

🎯 Aces by Player

Botic van de Zandschulp

Expected 7.3 aces

Probability distribution for the aces Botic van de Zandschulp serves in this match.
Luciano Darderi

Expected 6.2 aces

Probability distribution for the aces Luciano Darderi serves in this match.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Botic van de Zandschulp versus Luciano Darderi. The chart shows the predicted probability for each double-fault count.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Botic van de Zandschulp versus Luciano Darderi. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

Double Faults by Player

Botic van de Zandschulp

Expected 4.0 double faults

Probability distribution for the double faults Botic van de Zandschulp serves in this match.
Luciano Darderi

Expected 2.9 double faults

Probability distribution for the double faults Luciano Darderi serves in this match.

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

43.4% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Botic van de Zandschulp's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (30.4%)
Probability distribution of the final set score from Botic van de Zandschulp's perspective. Format: BO3.

Final Prediction

Darderi’s slight edge traces back to overall strength as reflected in his higher Elo and ranking. The match will likely be decided by physical freshness and by how effectively Botic converts his better return play into breaks. The key factor to watch is fatigue, especially for Darderi after a lengthy previous match.

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