Chengdu
China
Hard
Atp 250
Semifinals
Brandon Nakashima vs Alejandro Tabilo Prediction
Brandon Nakashima
Rank: #33
54%
VS
Alejandro Tabilo
Rank: #112
46%
Predicted Games Played:
25.0
Predicted Winner:
Brandon Nakashima
Ranking Trends
Brandon Nakashima
- Current Rank: #33 (2025-09-15)
- 3 Months Ago: #32 (2025-06-16)
- 6 Months Ago: #32 (2025-03-17)
- 9 Months Ago: #38 (2024-12-16)
- 12 Months Ago: #39 (2024-09-16)
Alejandro Tabilo
- Current Rank: #112 (2025-09-15)
- 3 Months Ago: #55 (2025-06-16)
- 6 Months Ago: #31 (2025-03-17)
- 9 Months Ago: #23 (2024-12-16)
- 12 Months Ago: #22 (2024-09-16)
Player Metrics
Brandon Nakashima
Form Index:
58.2
ELO Rating:
1155.7
Glicko2 Rating:
1613.4
Current Fatigue (minutes):
233.0
Surface Strength:
Hard:
11.5
Clay:
10.6
Grass:
11.7
Serve Rating:
98.0
Return Rating:
84.3
Alejandro Tabilo
Form Index:
60.1
ELO Rating:
1217.1
Glicko2 Rating:
1585.6
Current Fatigue (minutes):
550.0
Surface Strength:
Hard:
11.2
Clay:
11.3
Grass:
16.8
Serve Rating:
95.8
Return Rating:
84.5
Recent Matches
Brandon Nakashima
- Last Match: vs Marcos Giron (2-1) hard Chengdu 132 min
- 2nd Last Match: vs Juncheng Shang (2-0) hard Chengdu 101 min
- 3rd Last Match: vs Jerome Kym (2-3) hard Us Open 174 min
- 4th Last Match: vs Jesper de Jong (3-2) hard Us Open 174 min
- 5th Last Match: vs Alexander Zverev (0-2) hard Cincinnati 96 min
Alejandro Tabilo
- Last Match: vs Christopher O'Connell (2-1) hard Chengdu 144 min
- 2nd Last Match: vs Luciano Darderi (2-0) hard Chengdu 86 min
- 3rd Last Match: vs Jordan Thompson (2-0) hard Chengdu 79 min
- 4th Last Match: vs Lloyd Harris (2-1) hard Chengdu 165 min
- 5th Last Match: vs Rigele Te (2-0) hard Chengdu 76 min
Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)
0
Brandon Nakashima
vs
1
Alejandro Tabilo
Hard
0 - 1
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0
Key Prediction Insights
The Chengdu tournament is reaching its climax as Brandon Nakashima faces Alejandro Tabilo in the semifinals. This hard court matchup in China is crucial for both players as they vie for a spot in the finals of this ATP 250 event. The predicted winner is Brandon Nakashima, with a 53.93% probability of winning, compared to Alejandro Tabilo's 46.07%. The match is expected to see around 25 total games played.
Match Analysis
Brandon Nakashima enters this match ranked 33rd, with a form index of 58.20 and an Elo rating of 1155.67. He has a relatively low cumulative fatigue of 233 minutes from the current tournament, allowing him to maintain a fresh mindset. His surface strength index stands at 11.51, indicating solid performance on hard courts, and his mean serve index of 97.98 surpasses Tabilo's mean serve index of 95.85 by more than 5 points, giving him an advantage in serving power. Nakashima’s mean return index is also impressive at 84.34.
In contrast, Alejandro Tabilo is ranked 112th and has a slightly higher form index of 60.09, alongside a better Elo rating of 1217.14. However, Tabilo's fatigue level is significantly higher at 550 minutes, which may hinder his performance. His surface strength index is slightly lower at 11.23, and his return index of 84.46 is comparable to Nakashima's, with only a marginal difference. Both players have shown resilience in their recent matches, with Nakashima winning two out of his last three and Tabilo winning all three of his most recent encounters.
Final Prediction
Nakashima's edge lies in his superior serving capabilities and lower fatigue levels, which can be decisive factors in a high-stakes match. The key aspect to monitor will be how well he utilizes his serve against Tabilo, as this could dictate the pace and flow of the match.