Marseille France Hard Atp 250 Round of 32

Hamad Medjedovic vs Brandon Nakashima Prediction

Hamad Medjedovic

Rank: #76
27%
VS

Brandon Nakashima

Rank: #17
73%
Expected Total Games: 25.1
Predicted Winner: Brandon Nakashima

Why the Model Favors Brandon Nakashima

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Recent record by level +5.7 Brandon Nakashima
Overall strength +4.6 Brandon Nakashima
Serve & return game +4.5 Brandon Nakashima
Recent form +4.4 Brandon Nakashima
Overall record & opposition quality +3.1 Brandon Nakashima

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 73% for Brandon Nakashima. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Hamad Medjedovic

  • Current #76 2026-10-19
  • 3 mo ago #72 2026-07-20
  • 6 mo ago #68 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #90 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #67 2025-10-20

Brandon Nakashima

  • Current #17 2026-10-19
  • 3 mo ago #32 2026-07-20
  • 6 mo ago #32 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #30 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #32 2025-10-20

Player Metrics

Hamad Medjedovic

Form Index: 20.9
ELO Rating: 1544.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1686.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 11.3
Clay: 27.9
Grass: 5.6
Serve Rating: 97.2
Return Rating: 87.7

Brandon Nakashima

Form Index: 40.2
ELO Rating: 1808.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1831.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 36.5
Clay: 19.4
Grass: 21.2
Serve Rating: 96.9
Return Rating: 85.9

Recent Matches

Hamad Medjedovic
❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌

Brandon Nakashima
❌ ✅ ❌ ❌ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Hamad Medjedovic
vs
1
Brandon Nakashima
Hard
1 - 1
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Brandon Nakashima is the clear favourite, at 73% to Hamad Medjedovic’s 27%, with the forecast pointing to 25.1 total games.

Match Analysis

The largest separation is in overall level and hard-court suitability. Nakashima is ranked 17th to Medjedovic’s 76th and has been the stronger hard-court player, giving him a solid base in a matchup where their serve indicators are close. Recent results reinforce the difference. Medjedovic has lost his last three recorded matches in straight sets, most recently to Thiago Agustin Tirante. Nakashima’s recent stretch includes a win over Matteo Berrettini, though he also lost his latest match to Alexander Bublik.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 25.1 Most likely outcome: 24 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Hamad Medjedovic - Brandon Nakashima) -3.2 Most likely spread: -4 (Brandon Nakashima wins 4 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Medjedovic is projected for 8.4 aces and 3.5 double faults, while Nakashima is forecast to hit 9.8 aces and make 2.0 double faults. Their serve indicators are close, but the forecast gives Nakashima a small advantage in the balance between aces and errors.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 17.1 Most likely: 16 aces Per player: Hamad Medjedovic 8.4 + Brandon Nakashima 9.8
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.5 Most likely: 4 double faults Per player: Hamad Medjedovic 3.5 + Brandon Nakashima 2.0

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Hamad Medjedovic

Expected 8.4 aces

Brandon Nakashima

Expected 9.8 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Hamad Medjedovic

Expected 3.5 double faults

Brandon Nakashima

Expected 2.0 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

42.3% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Hamad Medjedovic's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (49.1%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Medjedovic’s serve is his clearest chance to alter the outlook. If it produces more free points than projected, he could keep sets close enough to make Nakashima’s advantages in level and recent form less decisive.

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