Brandon Nakashima vs Nikoloz Basilashvili: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Nakashima arrives as the higher-ranked player (No. 32) with an Elo of 1647.7, a strong mean serve index (96.8) and an even stronger mean return index (89.2). His surface strength index on clay is modest (15.97), but he has shown the ability to handle quality opponents — most recently beating Roberto Bautista Agut in Rome in 82 minutes. His form index (40.37) is middling and his tournament fatigue is low at 82 minutes on court, a clear physical advantage. Basilashvili, ranked 117, carries a higher Elo (1686.0) and a notably better form index (72.21), reflecting three consecutive wins in Rome. However, his cumulative fatigue is substantial (464 minutes), the product of long matches (137 and 122 minutes among them). His surface strength index is also limited (24.59). Serve and return numbers are comparable: Nakashima’s serve and return edges are present but do not exceed a 5-point gap, so expect marginal rather than decisive serving advantages. Recent results show Nakashima with one solid Rome win but two earlier clay losses, while Basilashvili has been consistently winning at this event despite the time on court.