Barcelona Spain Clay Atp 500 Round of 16

Cameron Norrie vs Ethan Quinn: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Cameron Norrie

Rank: #24
48%
VS

Ethan Quinn

Rank: #50
52%
Expected Total Games: 23.7
Predicted Winner: Ethan Quinn

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Ranking Trends

Cameron Norrie

  • Current #24 2026-04-13
  • 3 mo ago #28 2026-01-12
  • 6 mo ago #33 2025-10-13
  • 9 mo ago #43 2025-07-14
  • 12 mo ago #88 2025-04-14

Ethan Quinn

  • Current #50 2026-04-13
  • 3 mo ago #78 2026-01-12
  • 6 mo ago #72 2025-10-13
  • 9 mo ago #82 2025-07-14
  • 12 mo ago #126 2025-04-14

Player Metrics

Cameron Norrie

Form Index: 45.3
ELO Rating: 1705.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1743.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 153.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 59.6
Clay: 43.2
Grass: 46.5
Serve Rating: 74.3
Return Rating: 69.0

Ethan Quinn

Form Index: 57.2
ELO Rating: 1637.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1651.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 307.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 56.1
Clay: 42.6
Grass: 40.8
Serve Rating: 96.8
Return Rating: 88.2

Recent Matches

Cameron Norrie
✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Stan Wawrinka (2-1) clay Barcelona 153 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Alex de Minaur (1-2) clay Monte Carlo 144 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Miomir Kecmanovic (2-1) clay Monte Carlo 168 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Alex Michelsen (1-2) hard Miami 156 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Carlos Alcaraz (0-2) hard Indian Wells 93 min

Ethan Quinn
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Cameron Norrie
vs
0
Ethan Quinn
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In Barcelona, Spain, the 500-level clay event reaches the round of 16 with Cameron Norrie facing Ethan Quinn on a slow, high-bounce surface. The model gives the edge to Ethan Quinn (51.72%) over Cameron Norrie (48.28%), with a tight match expected and a projected total of about 23.7 games.

Match Analysis

Norrie (world No. 24) arrives with an Elo of 1705 and a form index of 45.25; his surface strength sits at 43.23 and he has accumulated 153 minutes of court time in the event. Quinn (No. 50) posts a lower Elo (1637.7) but a stronger form index at 57.25, a surface index of 42.60, and notably higher fatigue (307 minutes). The serving and returning profiles diverge: Quinn’s mean serve index (96.81) is substantially higher than Norrie’s (74.30), and Quinn’s mean return index (88.19) likewise outstrips Norrie’s (68.97) — both differences exceed 5 points and are likely to shape tactical dynamics on clay. Across their last three matches, Norrie is 2-1, with recent wins including a 2-1 victory over Stan Wawrinka and a hard-fought three-set win in Monte Carlo earlier in the swing; his matches have tended to be long. Quinn is 3-0 here in Barcelona, beating Reilly Opelka, Daniel Merida and Nikoloz Basilashvili, with generally shorter match times overall but a heavy cumulative workload this week. Those form lines and minute totals explain the narrow probability split favoring Quinn.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.7 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Cameron Norrie - Ethan Quinn) -2.3 Most likely spread: -3 (Ethan Quinn wins 3 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this clay match is modest: predicted aces total about 8.47, reflecting the surface’s tendency to reduce free points. The expected double faults tally is 4.59; clay’s long rallies and high bounce combined with fatigue can raise double fault risk late in matches. Given Quinn’s markedly higher serve index, he is the more likely source of a higher share of the predicted aces.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 8.5 Most likely: 8 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.6 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Quinn’s superior serving and returning indices, coupled with his strong run in Barcelona, give him a small edge despite heavier minutes on court. The key factor to watch will be how fatigue interacts with big-serving opportunities — if Quinn sustains first serves, he likely nudges this tight encounter his way.

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