Auckland New Zealand Hard Atp 250 Round of 32

Cameron Norrie vs Hugo Gaston Prediction

Cameron Norrie

Rank: #28
70%
VS

Hugo Gaston

Rank: #94
30%
Expected Total Games: 22.0
Predicted Winner: Cameron Norrie

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Ranking Trends

Cameron Norrie

  • Current #28 2026-01-05
  • 3 mo ago #33 2025-10-13
  • 6 mo ago #43 2025-07-14
  • 9 mo ago #88 2025-04-14
  • 12 mo ago #52 2025-01-13

Hugo Gaston

  • Current #94 2026-01-05
  • 3 mo ago #97 2025-10-13
  • 6 mo ago #91 2025-07-14
  • 9 mo ago #82 2025-04-14
  • 12 mo ago #81 2025-01-13

Player Metrics

Cameron Norrie

Form Index: 62.9
ELO Rating: 1463.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1612.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 37.5
Clay: 37.4
Grass: 36.8
Serve Rating: 37.9
Return Rating: 75.5

Hugo Gaston

Form Index: 56.9
ELO Rating: 662.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1572.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 157
Surface Strength:
Hard: 22.8
Clay: 14.6
Grass: 16.9
Serve Rating: 45.5
Return Rating: 73.5

Recent Matches

Cameron Norrie
❌ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

Hugo Gaston
✅ ✅ ❌ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Vit Kopriva (2-0) hard Auckland 84 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Isaac Becroft (2-0) hard Auckland 73 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Matteo Arnaldi (1-2) hard Brisbane 152 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Daniel Altmaier (1-1) hard Metz 74 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Terence Atmane (2-0) hard Metz 51 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Cameron Norrie
vs
0
Hugo Gaston
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
1 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming match between Cameron Norrie and Hugo Gaston takes place in the Round of 32 at the Auckland tournament, held on a hard surface. With a predicted winner of Cameron Norrie, he holds a 69.76% probability of winning compared to Gaston's 30.24%. The match is expected to feature a total of approximately 22 games played.

Match Analysis

Cameron Norrie, currently ranked 28, boasts a higher form index of 62.91 and an Elo rating of 1463.79. He remains fresh with no fatigue recorded in the tournament thus far. His surface strength index is at 37.51, along with a mean serve index of 37.94 and a notably strong mean return index of 75.47, which is significantly higher than Gaston’s mean return index of 73.46. In contrast, Hugo Gaston is ranked 94, with a form index of 56.88 and an Elo rating of 662.15. He has accumulated 157 minutes of fatigue in the tournament and holds a lower surface strength index of 22.78, as well as a mean serve index of 45.51. In their recent performances, Norrie has shown mixed results, having won 2 of his last 3 matches, including a hard-fought victory against Ugo Humbert. However, he faced a tough loss to Aleksandar Kovacevic in his last match. Conversely, Gaston has enjoyed success in Auckland, winning both of his last two matches convincingly against Vit Kopriva and Isaac Becroft, both in straight sets. Despite this, his earlier defeat to Matteo Arnaldi in Brisbane raises concerns about his consistency.

Final Prediction

Cameron Norrie's edge is primarily due to his higher ranking, better recent form, and superior return game, which could exploit Gaston's weaknesses. A key factor to watch will be Norrie's ability to maintain pressure on Gaston's serve, as his return prowess is likely to create opportunities for breaks throughout the match.

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