Barcelona Spain Clay Atp 500 Quarterfinals

Cameron Norrie vs Rafael Jodar: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Cameron Norrie

Rank: #24
50%
VS

Rafael Jodar

Rank: #55
50%
Expected Total Games: 23.5
Predicted Winner: Cameron Norrie

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Ranking Trends

Cameron Norrie

  • Current #24 2026-04-13
  • 3 mo ago #28 2026-01-12
  • 6 mo ago #33 2025-10-13
  • 9 mo ago #43 2025-07-14
  • 12 mo ago #88 2025-04-14

Rafael Jodar

  • Current #55 2026-04-13
  • 3 mo ago #150 2026-01-12
  • 6 mo ago #283 2025-10-13
  • 9 mo ago #1000 None
  • 12 mo ago #1000 None

Player Metrics

Cameron Norrie

Form Index: 51.6
ELO Rating: 1721.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1756.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 303.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 59.6
Clay: 43.7
Grass: 46.5
Serve Rating: 74.5
Return Rating: 69.1

Rafael Jodar

Form Index: 89.4
ELO Rating: 1795.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1858.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 159.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 56.5
Clay: 42.2
Grass: 39.7
Serve Rating: 96.6
Return Rating: 88.3

Recent Matches

Cameron Norrie
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Ethan Quinn (2-1) clay Barcelona 150 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Stan Wawrinka (2-1) clay Barcelona 153 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Alex de Minaur (1-2) clay Monte Carlo 144 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Miomir Kecmanovic (2-1) clay Monte Carlo 168 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Alex Michelsen (1-2) hard Miami 156 min

Rafael Jodar
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Cameron Norrie
vs
1
Rafael Jodar
Hard
0 - 1
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Quarterfinals action in Barcelona on clay sets up a tight duel between Cameron Norrie and Rafael Jodar at this 500-level event. The model gives Norrie a razor-thin edge — 50.05% to Jodar’s 49.95% — with a predicted total of about 23.53 games, suggesting a close two-setter or a tight three-setter decided on a few pivotal games.

Match Analysis

Norrie arrives as the higher-ranked player (24) with an Elo of 1721.6, a solid mean serve (74.5) and strong return tools (69.1). He’s logged heavy minutes in Barcelona (303 cumulative minutes) with two long three-set wins in the last week, which raises fatigue questions on slow clay where long rallies are common. His surface strength index (43.7) is marginally higher than Jodar’s, but both sit in a similar range for clay performance. Jodar is ranked 55 but posts the higher Elo (1795.6) and comes in red-hot on form (89.4). He’s considerably fresher (159 minutes) after three straight-set wins, and his mean serve (96.6) and return (88.3) indices both exceed Norrie’s by more than 5 points — a significant split that can tilt key service and return exchanges. Recent results show Jodar winning comfortably in shorter matches, while Norrie has battled through longer encounters; that contrast in recent match length and fatigue underpins the near-even prediction despite the small edge for Norrie.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.5 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Cameron Norrie - Rafael Jodar) +1.9 Most likely spread: +2 (Cameron Norrie wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction sits at about 16.73 for the match, while the expected double faults are 6.69. Clay’s slower, higher-bouncing characteristics typically depress ace counts and favor extended rallies, so the predicted aces reflect surface dampening despite Jodar’s much higher serve index; his big serve still elevates the predicted aces relative to a baseline clay match. The double faults prediction takes into account fatigue and longer points on clay — expected double faults could creep up, particularly if Norrie’s accumulated minutes catch up with him.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 16.7 Most likely: 16 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 6.7 Most likely: 6 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Norrie’s slight edge comes from ranking, experience in tight matches and a marginally better clay strength metric, but the matchup is finely balanced. The key factor to watch is Jodar’s serving and how Norrie’s return game handles it — that battle will likely decide which player squeezes the few decisive service breaks.

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