Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Flavio Cobolli: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Carabelli arrives as world No. 57 with a strong form index (61.47) and an Elo of 1630.5; he carries 78 minutes of court time in this event and posts a surface strength index of 41.74. Cobolli, ranked 13, has the higher Elo (1736.03) but a lower form index (50.91) and shows zero cumulative fatigue in the tournament so far. The serving and returning profiles are a notable contrast: Cobolli’s mean serve index (97.20) surpasses Carabelli’s (79.19) by roughly 18 points, and his mean return index (90.64) is about 16 points higher than Carabelli’s (74.56). Both differences are large enough to be meaningful in match dynamics. Across their last three matches, Carabelli has two wins (including a straight-sets victory over Gael Monfils in Madrid) and one loss in Barcelona to Rafael Jodar, suggesting pockets of strong clay-court form. Cobolli also has two wins from his most recent three matches (including a notable win over Alexander Zverev in Munich) but was beaten last time out by Ben Shelton; he arrives physically fresh. Neither player’s recent results contradict the statistical edge that Cobolli’s overall ratings provide.