Madrid Spain Clay Masters 1000 Round of 128

Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Gael Monfils: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Rank: #57
52%
VS

Gael Monfils

Rank: #200
48%
Expected Total Games: 23.0
Predicted Winner: Camilo Ugo Carabelli

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Ranking Trends

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

  • Current #57 2026-04-20
  • 3 mo ago #49 2026-01-19
  • 6 mo ago #50 2025-10-20
  • 9 mo ago #51 2025-07-21
  • 12 mo ago #59 2025-04-21

Gael Monfils

  • Current #200 2026-04-20
  • 3 mo ago #110 2026-01-19
  • 6 mo ago #66 2025-10-20
  • 9 mo ago #48 2025-07-21
  • 12 mo ago #42 2025-04-21

Player Metrics

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Form Index: 53.1
ELO Rating: 1603.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1644.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 51.8
Clay: 41.0
Grass: 39.7
Serve Rating: 78.6
Return Rating: 74.4

Gael Monfils

Form Index: 43.9
ELO Rating: 1584.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1602.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 54.2
Clay: 41.5
Grass: 40.9
Serve Rating: 97.6
Return Rating: 89.9

Recent Matches

Camilo Ugo Carabelli
❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

Gael Monfils
❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
vs
0
Gael Monfils
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This is a first-round clash at the Madrid Masters 1000 in Spain, played on slow clay. The model edges Camilo Ugo Carabelli as the slight favorite — predicted winner: Camilo Ugo Carabelli (51.66%) over Gael Monfils (48.34%) — with an expected total of roughly 23.0 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Camilo Ugo Carabelli arrives with a higher world ranking (57) and a marginally stronger form index (53.10) than Monfils (rank 200, form 43.91). Carabelli also has the higher Elo (1603.89 vs 1584.33) and no accumulated fatigue in the event. Surface strength indices are very similar (Carabelli 40.97, Monfils 41.53), so neither player has a pronounced clay advantage on paper. The gap between their mean serve indices is substantial: Monfils (97.61) versus Carabelli (78.57), a difference of about 19 points; Monfils’ mean return index (89.93) also exceeds Carabelli’s (74.45) by roughly 15 points, which could shape short-points dynamics. Their recent results show a mixed pattern. Carabelli has two losses to Rafael Jodar (Marrakech, Barcelona) but a notable win over Karen Khachanov in Barcelona (R32). Monfils comes off a heavy three-set win over Tallon Griekspoor in Monte Carlo and defeats at the hands of Alexander Bublik and Felix Auger-Aliassime, including long matches on clay and hard courts that suggest resilience but some inconsistency in closing out top-level meetings.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.0 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Gael Monfils) +1.9 Most likely spread: +2 (Camilo Ugo Carabelli wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match sits at about 16.73 total (predicted aces) with an expected double faults tally near 6.68 (expected double faults). Clay’s slower pace and higher bounce typically reduce ace counts and can elevate double faults as rallies and physical demand increase. Given Monfils’ far higher serve rating, he is the likeliest source of most of the aces, which moderates the overall reduction caused by the surface.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 16.7 Most likely: 16 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 6.7 Most likely: 6 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Carabelli’s edge in ranking, slightly better recent form and higher Elo explain the narrow prediction in his favor. The decisive factor to watch will be how Monfils’ serving power and elite return metrics translate on Madrid clay; if his serve fires consistently, the contest could tilt back toward him.

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