Cincinnati OH, U.S.A. Hard Masters 1000 Round of 128

Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Miomir Kecmanovic: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Rank: #76
41%
VS

Miomir Kecmanovic

Rank: #62
59%
Expected Total Games: 23.9
Predicted Winner: Miomir Kecmanovic

Why the Model Favors Miomir Kecmanovic

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Recent record by level +2.6 Miomir Kecmanovic
Surface fit +2.0 Miomir Kecmanovic
Overall record & opposition quality +2.0 Miomir Kecmanovic
Fatigue & recent workload +0.8 Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Serve & return game +0.7 Miomir Kecmanovic

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 59% for Miomir Kecmanovic. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

  • Current #76 2026-08-03
  • 3 mo ago #61 2026-05-04
  • 6 mo ago #47 2026-02-09
  • 9 mo ago #49 2025-11-10
  • 12 mo ago #43 2025-08-18

Miomir Kecmanovic

  • Current #62 2026-08-03
  • 3 mo ago #70 2026-05-04
  • 6 mo ago #66 2026-02-09
  • 9 mo ago #52 2025-11-10
  • 12 mo ago #45 2025-08-18

Player Metrics

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Form Index: 30.6
ELO Rating: 1564.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1641.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 14.8
Clay: 20.5
Grass: 3.8
Serve Rating: 95.4
Return Rating: 88.6

Miomir Kecmanovic

Form Index: 35.5
ELO Rating: 1576.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1589.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 19.7
Clay: 12.8
Grass: 15.9
Serve Rating: 95.9
Return Rating: 87.8

Recent Matches

Camilo Ugo Carabelli
❌ ❌ ❌ ✅ ✅

Miomir Kecmanovic
❌ ✅ ❌ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Arthur Rinderknech (1-2) hard Toronto 173 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Michael Zheng (2-1) hard Toronto 166 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Sebastian Baez (1-2) clay Kitzbuhel 109 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo (1-2) clay Gstaad 128 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Kilian Feldbausch (2-1) clay Gstaad 97 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
vs
0
Miomir Kecmanovic
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At Cincinnati (OH) in the Masters 1000 opening round on hard courts, Miomir Kecmanovic is narrowly favoured to beat Camilo Ugo Carabelli. The projection gives Kecmanovic a 58.78% chance to win versus 41.22% for Carabelli, with an expected total of about 23.9 games in the match.

Match Analysis

The model’s edge for Kecmanovic comes primarily from recent results at comparable levels and a slightly better surface fit, with overall record and opposition quality also nudging the prediction his way. Kecmanovic sits at world No. 62 with an Elo around 1577 and a higher form index (35.54) than Carabelli (rank 76, Elo 1564, form 30.55). Both arrive fresh with zero cumulative fatigue in this event, so recent form and match context matter more than accumulated minutes on court. Surface strength indexes modestly favour Kecmanovic (19.75 vs 14.78), reflecting a marginally better adaptation to hard courts. Serve and return profiles are very similar—mean serve indexes are essentially level (95.9 vs 95.4) and return indexes are close as well—so no large serving mismatch is expected. Over their last three outings Carabelli has struggled, losing his last three matches (Toronto, Estoril, Umag), while Kecmanovic has mixed results with one win in Toronto and two close defeats, including long recent matches that show competitive baseline resilience.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.9 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Miomir Kecmanovic) -0.8 Most likely spread: -1 (Miomir Kecmanovic wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction lands at roughly 9.63 for the match and the expected double faults are about 5.32. On Cincinnati’s medium-paced hard courts, the predicted aces figure is moderate—hard courts typically produce a balanced ace count compared with grass or clay. Since neither player has a significantly higher serve rating, the predicted aces and expected double faults reflect two competent servers rather than a single dominant big-serve factor.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 9.6 Most likely: 9 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.3 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

36.1% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Camilo Ugo Carabelli's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (32.2%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Kecmanovic’s narrow advantage is driven most by his recent results at comparable event levels. The key factor to watch is how both players execute on serve returns in pivotal moments—given similar serving profiles, returns and break-point conversion could decide this one.

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