Hamburg Germany Clay Atp 500 Round of 32

Sebastian Baez vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli Prediction

Sebastian Baez

Rank: #33
51%
VS

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Rank: #60
49%
Predicted Games Played: 23.0
Predicted Winner: Sebastian Baez

Ranking Trends

Sebastian Baez

  • Current Rank: #33 (2025-05-05)
  • 3 Months Ago: #31 (2025-02-17)
  • 6 Months Ago: #27 (2024-11-18)
  • 9 Months Ago: #21 (2024-08-19)
  • 12 Months Ago: #20 (2024-05-20)

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

  • Current Rank: #60 (2025-05-05)
  • 3 Months Ago: #91 (2025-02-17)
  • 6 Months Ago: #104 (2024-11-18)
  • 9 Months Ago: #93 (2024-08-19)
  • 12 Months Ago: #110 (2024-05-20)

Player Metrics

Sebastian Baez

Form Index: 23.3
ELO Rating: 1121.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1633.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 9.6
Clay: 10.3
Grass: 13.4
Serve Rating: 96.7
Return Rating: 89.7

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Form Index: 39.0
ELO Rating: 768.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1569.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 5.5
Clay: 6.2
Grass: 4.7
Serve Rating: 95.1
Return Rating: 88.9

Recent Matches

Sebastian Baez
❌ ❌ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Vit Kopriva (1-2) clay Rome 152 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Damir Dzumhur (1-2) clay Madrid 98 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Holger Rune (1-2) clay Barcelona 108 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Damir Dzumhur (2-0) clay Barcelona 86 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Tomas Machac (1-2) clay Monte Carlo 114 min

Camilo Ugo Carabelli
❌ ✅ ❌ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Alexander Zverev (0-2) clay Rome 66 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Pablo Carreno Busta (2-1) clay Rome 126 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Christopher O'Connell (0-2) clay Madrid 73 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Alexandre Muller (0-2) clay Monte Carlo 92 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Hamad Medjedovic (2-0) clay Monte Carlo 109 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

3
Sebastian Baez
vs
0
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
3 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 32 at the Hamburg tournament taking place on clay, Sebastian Baez faces Camilo Ugo Carabelli. With a slight edge, Baez is predicted to win with a probability of 51.00%, while Carabelli stands at 49.00%. The anticipated total number of games played is 23.0.

Match Analysis

Sebastian Baez, currently ranked 33, boasts a form index of 23.34, indicating a challenging recent performance. His Elo rating of 1121.07 reflects a higher competitive standing, and he shows no cumulative fatigue from the tournament. Baez’s surface strength index stands at 10.31, which is significantly higher than Carabelli’s index of 6.16, giving him an advantage on clay. Moreover, Baez's mean serve index of 96.68 surpasses Carabelli's 95.11 by over 5 points, indicating a superior serving capability. However, the difference in their mean return indices is marginal, with Baez at 89.70 and Carabelli at 88.95. Camilo Ugo Carabelli, ranked 60, presents a mixed bag of recent performances. He recently faced tough opponents, including Alexander Zverev, where he did not secure a win. However, he did manage a notable victory against Pablo Carreno Busta in his second last match, showcasing his potential. His recent form index of 38.99 suggests he is in better form than Baez, but his overall performance in their last three matches lacks consistency compared to Baez's struggles against formidable opponents.

Final Prediction

Sebastian Baez holds a slight edge due to his superior serving ability and strength on clay, despite his recent form challenges. A key factor to watch will be how each player's serve is utilized, particularly given Baez's higher serve index, which could play a crucial role in determining the match outcome.