Santiago Chile Clay Atp 250 Round of 16

Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Yannick Hanfmann: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Rank: #59
50%
VS

Yannick Hanfmann

Rank: #81
50%
Expected Total Games: 22.4
Predicted Winner: Camilo Ugo Carabelli

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Ranking Trends

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

  • Current #59 2026-02-23
  • 3 mo ago #49 2025-11-24
  • 6 mo ago #43 2025-08-25
  • 9 mo ago #51 2025-05-26
  • 12 mo ago #69 2025-02-24

Yannick Hanfmann

  • Current #81 2026-02-23
  • 3 mo ago #103 2025-11-24
  • 6 mo ago #132 2025-08-25
  • 9 mo ago #142 2025-05-26
  • 12 mo ago #109 2025-02-24

Player Metrics

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Form Index: 25.8
ELO Rating: 917.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1554.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 5.4
Clay: 7.0
Grass: 7.9
Serve Rating: 77.4
Return Rating: 72.8

Yannick Hanfmann

Form Index: 51.0
ELO Rating: 633.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1564.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 74.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 6.7
Clay: 6.2
Grass: 5.7
Serve Rating: 97.8
Return Rating: 89.8

Recent Matches

Camilo Ugo Carabelli
❌ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌

Yannick Hanfmann
✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Dusan Lajovic (1-0) clay Santiago 74 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo (1-2) clay Rio 169 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva (2-0) clay Rio 117 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Carlos Alcaraz (0-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Zachary Svajda (3-1) hard Australian Open 174 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
vs
0
Yannick Hanfmann
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This round-of-16 clash in Santiago, Chile is played on clay at an ATP 250 event and projects to be tight. The model slightly favors Camilo Ugo Carabelli to win (50.20%) over Yannick Hanfmann (49.80%), with a low expected total of 22.35 games, suggesting a two-set contest with several short service games.

Match Analysis

Camilo Ugo Carabelli enters ranked 59 with a strong Elo (916.95) and a solid recent form index (25.80). He shows balanced serving and returning numbers: mean serve index 77.37 and mean return index 72.79, and he arrives fresh with zero minutes’ fatigue recorded in this event. Yannick Hanfmann, ranked 81, posts a higher form index (51.04) but a much lower Elo (633.00) and carries 74 minutes of fatigue from earlier rounds. Hanfmann’s serve and return metrics are markedly stronger — mean serve index 97.79 and mean return index 89.80 — differences greater than 5 points versus Carabelli on both metrics, which will shape many key points. Looking at recent matches, Carabelli’s last three results show one win (over Mariano Navone) and two straight-set defeats (to Sebastian Baez and Roman Burruchaga), with match durations above 90 minutes in earlier rounds. Hanfmann’s form includes wins over Dusan Lajovic and Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva and a three-set loss to Juan Manuel Cerundolo; his rounds include a very long 169-minute contest, contributing to his tournament fatigue total.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 22.4 Most likely outcome: 22 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Yannick Hanfmann) +0.7 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

This aces prediction points to 19.38 total predicted aces for the match, but clay typically suppresses serve speed and reduces ace counts. The double faults prediction (expected double faults = 5.72) reflects both surface-long rallies and accumulated fatigue, particularly for the player with prior long matches. Hanfmann’s significantly higher serve rating could push the predicted aces upward despite clay’s dampening effect.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 19.4 Most likely: 19 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.7 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Carabelli’s edge rests on higher Elo, fresher legs, and steadier recent clay experience, enough to nudge the outcome in his favor by a hair. Watch serve effectiveness under pressure and Hanfmann’s ability to convert free points — that dynamic will likely decide the slim margin.

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