Australian Open Australia Hard Grand Slam Round of 128

Carlos Alcaraz vs Adam Walton: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Carlos Alcaraz

Rank: #1
82%
VS

Adam Walton

Rank: #77
18%
Expected Total Games: 35.2
Predicted Winner: Carlos Alcaraz

Ranking Trends

Carlos Alcaraz

  • Current Rank: #1 (2026-01-05)
  • 3 Months Ago: #1 (2025-10-20)
  • 6 Months Ago: #2 (2025-07-21)
  • 9 Months Ago: #3 (2025-04-21)
  • 12 Months Ago: #3 (2025-01-13)

Adam Walton

  • Current Rank: #77 (2026-01-05)
  • 3 Months Ago: #74 (2025-10-20)
  • 6 Months Ago: #84 (2025-07-21)
  • 9 Months Ago: #86 (2025-04-21)
  • 12 Months Ago: #90 (2025-01-13)

Player Metrics

Carlos Alcaraz

Form Index: 58.5
ELO Rating: 12050.0
Glicko2 Rating: 2201.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 100.0
Clay: 100.0
Grass: 100.0
Serve Rating: 38.7
Return Rating: 52.6

Adam Walton

Form Index: 20.7
ELO Rating: 695.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1560.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 18.1
Clay: 15.9
Grass: 13.6
Serve Rating: 97.7
Return Rating: 94.1

Recent Matches

Carlos Alcaraz
❌ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Cameron Norrie (1-2) hard Paris 142 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Taylor Fritz (2-0) hard Tokio 93 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Casper Ruud (2-1) hard Tokio 128 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Brandon Nakashima (2-0) hard Tokio 80 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Zizou Bergs (2-0) hard Tokio 79 min

Adam Walton
❌ ✅ ❌ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Quentin Halys (0-2) hard Adelaide 89 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Jake Delaney (2-1) hard Adelaide 133 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Rinky Hijikata (0-2) hard Brisbane 72 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Aleksandar Vukic (1-2) hard Paris 119 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Marin Cilic (0-2) hard Basel 73 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Carlos Alcaraz
vs
0
Adam Walton
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
1 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming match between Carlos Alcaraz and Adam Walton at the Australian Open promises to be an intriguing contest. As both players enter the Round of 128 on hard courts, Alcaraz is heavily favored to win, with a probability of 81.92% compared to Walton's 18.08%. The match is expected to feature around 35.22 total games.

Match Analysis

Carlos Alcaraz enters this match ranked number 1 in the world, showcasing an impressive form index of 58.51 and a robust Elo rating of 12050. With no fatigue from the current tournament and a top-tier surface strength index of 100.0, Alcaraz is well-prepared. His mean serve index of 38.71 combined with a mean return index of 52.59 indicates a balanced game on this medium-paced hard surface. In contrast, Adam Walton is ranked 77th with a form index of just 20.75 and a significantly lower Elo rating of 695.78. Walton's surface strength index of 18.08 reflects a struggle on hard courts, although his mean serve index of 97.72 suggests he can deliver powerful serves. The noticeable difference in mean return index (Walton's 94.08 vs. Alcaraz's 52.59) may further hinder Walton's chances. In their recent performances, Alcaraz had a mixed bag, winning two of his last three matches, including a solid victory against Taylor Fritz. However, he did lose his most recent encounter against Cameron Norrie in a close battle. Walton's recent form shows he won only one of his last three matches, struggling against Quentin Halys in his latest outing. This dissimilarity in momentum could heavily influence the match’s outcome.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 35.2 Most likely outcome: 35 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

For this match, the expected aces prediction stands at approximately 13.28, while the expected double faults prediction is about 4.38. Given the hard court surface that generally supports a balanced number of aces, both players should find some success in their serves. Alcaraz's lower serve index relative to Walton does not imply a weak serve, but this could mean Walton's powerful serving could lead to a higher ace count if he finds his rhythm.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 13.3 Most likely: 13 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.4 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Carlos Alcaraz’s significant edge in rank, form, and recent performance makes him a formidable opponent for Adam Walton. The key factor to watch will be Alcaraz's return game, as his ability to neutralize Walton's serves could dictate the pace and outcome of the match.

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