Doha Qatar Hard Atp 500 Round of 32

Carlos Alcaraz vs Arthur Rinderknech: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Carlos Alcaraz

Rank: #1
78%
VS

Arthur Rinderknech

Rank: #28
22%
Expected Total Games: 20.9
Predicted Winner: Carlos Alcaraz

Also available in Claude. Query these predictions in plain language — our native connector lets Claude call our models on demand, no code.

Set it up

Ranking Trends

Carlos Alcaraz

  • Current #1 2026-02-09
  • 3 mo ago #1 2025-11-17
  • 6 mo ago #2 2025-08-18
  • 9 mo ago #2 2025-05-19
  • 12 mo ago #3 2025-02-17

Arthur Rinderknech

  • Current #28 2026-02-09
  • 3 mo ago #29 2025-11-17
  • 6 mo ago #77 2025-08-18
  • 9 mo ago #72 2025-05-19
  • 12 mo ago #63 2025-02-17

Player Metrics

Carlos Alcaraz

Form Index: 100.0
ELO Rating: 12050.0
Glicko2 Rating: 2207.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 100.0
Clay: 100.0
Grass: 100.0
Serve Rating: 50.0
Return Rating: 49.6

Arthur Rinderknech

Form Index: 15.3
ELO Rating: 1403.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1588.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 12.1
Clay: 10.0
Grass: 13.7
Serve Rating: 98.7
Return Rating: 88.5

Recent Matches

Carlos Alcaraz
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Novak Djokovic (3-1) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Alexander Zverev (3-2) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Alex de Minaur (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Tommy Paul (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Corentin Moutet (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min

Arthur Rinderknech
❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

2
Carlos Alcaraz
vs
0
Arthur Rinderknech
Hard
1 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
1 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This round-of-32 matchup in Doha, Qatar (hard court, ATP 500) pits world No.1 Carlos Alcaraz against No.28 Arthur Rinderknech. The model favors Alcaraz to win (77.92% vs 22.08%) with a predicted total of about 20.95 games in the match, suggesting a straight-sets outcome with relatively few service breaks overall.

Match Analysis

Alcaraz arrives as the clear statistical favorite: rank 1, a perfect form index (100.0), an Elo of 12050.0 and no tournament fatigue. His surface strength index is maximum at 100.0, indicating peak suitability to hard courts. Rinderknech profiles very differently — rank 28, form index 15.28, Elo 1403.08 and a low surface strength index (12.13). Both players report zero fatigue for this event. Serve/return metrics show marked contrasts. Rinderknech’s mean serve index (98.73) is dramatically higher than Alcaraz’s (50.01) — a difference large enough to affect service dominance. Likewise, Rinderknech’s mean return index (88.47) exceeds Alcaraz’s (49.60) by a substantial margin, which is notable though it sits against his low overall surface strength and form. Recent form reinforces the gap: Alcaraz has won his last three matches (all hard-court wins at the Australian Open, including victories over top opponents), while Rinderknech has lost his last three listed matches (Rotterdam, Australian Open, Metz) and has struggled to convert opportunities into wins in those appearances.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 20.9 Most likely outcome: 20 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Carlos Alcaraz - Arthur Rinderknech) +6.5 Most likely spread: +8 (Carlos Alcaraz wins 8 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match is modestly high for a hard court: predicted aces total is 8.89. The expected double faults are 6.37 for the match. Hard courts typically yield a balanced number of aces and double faults, and Rinderknech’s significantly higher serve rating is likely to drive a larger share of the predicted aces, while pressure serving against a top returner could elevate double faults as well. This expected double faults figure reflects the contrast between a big server and an aggressive return profile on a medium-paced surface.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 8.9 Most likely: 8 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 6.4 Most likely: 6 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Alcaraz’s dominant ranking, elite form, superior Elo and perfect surface strength give him the clear edge in Doha. The key factor to watch is Rinderknech’s serve: if it fires at usual levels it could extend games and increase ace counts, but Alcaraz’s overall form makes him the likeliest to control rallies and close the match efficiently.

Get Daily Tennis Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven tennis predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel