Indian Wells CA, U.S.A. Hard Masters 1000 Round of 64

Carlos Alcaraz vs Grigor Dimitrov: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Carlos Alcaraz

Rank: #1
80%
VS

Grigor Dimitrov

Rank: #44
20%
Expected Total Games: 21.5
Predicted Winner: Carlos Alcaraz

Ranking Trends

Carlos Alcaraz

  • Current Rank: #1 (2026-02-23)
  • 3 Months Ago: #1 (2025-12-01)
  • 6 Months Ago: #2 (2025-08-25)
  • 9 Months Ago: #2 (2025-05-26)
  • 12 Months Ago: #3 (2025-03-03)

Grigor Dimitrov

  • Current Rank: #44 (2026-02-23)
  • 3 Months Ago: #44 (2025-12-01)
  • 6 Months Ago: #25 (2025-08-25)
  • 9 Months Ago: #17 (2025-05-26)
  • 12 Months Ago: #15 (2025-03-03)

Player Metrics

Carlos Alcaraz

Form Index: 74.0
ELO Rating: 12050.0
Glicko2 Rating: 2210.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 100.0
Clay: 100.0
Grass: 100.0
Serve Rating: 53.6
Return Rating: 52.3

Grigor Dimitrov

Form Index: 32.9
ELO Rating: 1017.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1800.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 145.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 9.8
Clay: 8.8
Grass: 10.0
Serve Rating: 97.4
Return Rating: 88.9

Recent Matches

Carlos Alcaraz
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Arthur Fils (2-0) hard Doha 50 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Andrey Rublev (2-0) hard Doha 122 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Karen Khachanov (2-1) hard Doha 146 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Valentin Royer (2-0) hard Doha 95 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Arthur Rinderknech (2-0) hard Doha 107 min

Grigor Dimitrov
✅ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Terence Atmane (2-1) hard Indian Wells 145 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Terence Atmane (0-2) hard Acapulco 82 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Alex Michelsen (1-2) hard Dallas 125 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Tomas Machac (0-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Raphael Collignon (0-2) hard Brisbane 108 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Carlos Alcaraz
vs
0
Grigor Dimitrov
Hard
1 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At Indian Wells (CA) in the Round of 64 on outdoor hard courts, top seed Carlos Alcaraz meets veteran Grigor Dimitrov in a masters_1000 showdown. The model strongly favors Alcaraz (80.40% win probability) over Dimitrov (19.60%), with a projected match length of about 21.48 total games.

Match Analysis

Alcaraz arrives as world No. 1 with an elite form index (73.97), a towering Elo (12,050) and no tournament fatigue (0 minutes on court). His surface strength index is maxed at 100, reflecting peak hard-court comfort. By contrast Dimitrov (rank 44) posts a much lower form index (32.86), an Elo of 1,017.9 and carries 145 minutes of on-court time this week; his surface strength index is just 9.76. There is a very large gap in serving and returning profiles: Dimitrov’s mean serve index (97.39) exceeds Alcaraz’s (53.63) by more than 40 points, and his mean return index (88.95) likewise tops Alcaraz’s (52.35) by a similar margin — both differences are highly material and shape tactical expectations. Recent form underscores the contrast. Alcaraz has won his last three matches in Doha on hard courts, including two straight-set wins and a longer three-set battle, showing both endurance and consistency. Dimitrov’s last three outings are mixed: a gruelling 145-minute win at Indian Wells followed by losses in Acapulco and Dallas; those longer recent matches contribute to his fatigue number and uneven form.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 21.5 Most likely outcome: 21 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match is moderate, with predicted aces around 10.57 total and an expected double faults tally near 4.47. On a medium-paced hard court, these numbers fit the surface profile — a balance between serve dominance and return play. Given Dimitrov’s much higher serve index, he is likely to be the primary source of the predicted aces, while Alcaraz’s lower serve index suggests fewer free points but steadier service games.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 10.6 Most likely: 10 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.5 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Alcaraz’s overwhelming rankings, surface pedigree and fresher legs give him the clear edge in this matchup. The key factor to watch will be whether Dimitrov’s serving superiority can produce enough free points to offset Alcaraz’s all-court consistency and superior tournament form.

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