Australian Open Australia Hard Grand Slam Round of 16

Carlos Alcaraz vs Tommy Paul: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Carlos Alcaraz

Rank: #1
67%
VS

Tommy Paul

Rank: #21
33%
Expected Total Games: 36.0
Predicted Winner: Carlos Alcaraz

Player Metrics

Carlos Alcaraz

Form Index: 95.1
ELO Rating: 12050.0
Glicko2 Rating: 2201.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 522.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 100.0
Clay: 100.0
Grass: 100.0
Serve Rating: 50.7
Return Rating: 53.9

Tommy Paul

Form Index: 95.1
ELO Rating: 1982.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1812.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 522.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 53.7
Clay: 53.0
Grass: 45.8
Serve Rating: 96.2
Return Rating: 93.9

Recent Matches

Carlos Alcaraz

  • Last Match: vs Corentin Moutet (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Yannick Hanfmann (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Adam Walton (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Cameron Norrie (1-2) hard Paris 142 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Taylor Fritz (2-0) hard Tokio 93 min

Tommy Paul

  • Last Match: vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (2-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Thiago Agustin Tirante (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Aleksandar Kovacevic (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Tomas Machac (1-2) hard Adelaide 111 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Aleksandar Vukic (2-0) hard Adelaide 62 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Carlos Alcaraz
vs
0
Tommy Paul
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
1 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming Round of 16 clash at the Australian Open features world number one Carlos Alcaraz taking on 21st-ranked Tommy Paul. Set to be played on hard courts in Australia, this Grand Slam matchup promises to be a thrilling contest. Alcaraz is favored to win with a probability of 67.48% compared to Paul's 32.52%. The match is anticipated to involve around 36 games in total.

Match Analysis

Carlos Alcaraz enters this match with a strong form index of 95.13 and an impressive Elo rating of 12050. His cumulative fatigue from the tournament stands at 522 minutes. Notably, Alcaraz boasts a surface strength index of 100.0, indicating dominance on hard surfaces, and his mean return index of 53.88 reflects his solid returning capabilities. In contrast, Tommy Paul, ranked 21, has a slightly lower form index of 95.09 and an Elo rating of 1982.47. His fatigue is also at 522 minutes, suggesting both players are equally rested. Paul has a higher mean serve index of 96.18 compared to Alcaraz's 50.74, showcasing his strong serving game. However, Alcaraz's return capabilities may balance this disparity, as his return index is significantly higher than Paul’s. Both players have displayed outstanding performances in their previous matches. Alcaraz has convincingly won all of his last three matches in straight sets, demonstrating his current form and confidence. Similarly, Paul has also secured victories without dropping sets in his last three matches, showcasing his resilience and competitive edge. This match-up will be a test of Alcaraz’s return game against Paul’s serving prowess.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 36.0 Most likely outcome: 35 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

In terms of aces prediction for this match, approximately 10 aces are expected, with both players capable of delivering powerful serves on the hard court surface. The nature of hard courts typically yields a moderate number of aces, favoring both strong servers and competent returners. The expected double faults prediction stands at around 5.63, which may indicate some tension or pressure moments, particularly if the match becomes closely contested.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 10.1 Most likely: 10 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 5.6 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Final Prediction

Carlos Alcaraz is positioned as the predicted winner largely due to his superior rank and return capabilities, alongside his flawless performance thus far in the tournament. A key aspect to monitor will be how effectively Alcaraz can handle Paul’s powerful serve and whether Paul can maintain his serving consistency under pressure.

Get Daily Tennis Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven tennis predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel