Australian Open Australia Hard Grand Slam Round of 16

Carlos Alcaraz vs Tommy Paul: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Carlos Alcaraz

Rank: #1
67%
VS

Tommy Paul

Rank: #21
33%
Expected Total Games: 36.0
Predicted Winner: Carlos Alcaraz

Also available in Claude. Query these predictions in plain language — our native connector lets Claude call our models on demand, no code.

Set it up

Player Metrics

Carlos Alcaraz

Form Index: 95.1
ELO Rating: 12050.0
Glicko2 Rating: 2201.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 522.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 100.0
Clay: 100.0
Grass: 100.0
Serve Rating: 50.7
Return Rating: 53.9

Tommy Paul

Form Index: 95.1
ELO Rating: 1982.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1812.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 522.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 53.7
Clay: 53.0
Grass: 45.8
Serve Rating: 96.2
Return Rating: 93.9

Recent Matches

Carlos Alcaraz

Tommy Paul

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Carlos Alcaraz
vs
0
Tommy Paul
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
1 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming Round of 16 clash at the Australian Open features world number one Carlos Alcaraz taking on 21st-ranked Tommy Paul. Set to be played on hard courts in Australia, this Grand Slam matchup promises to be a thrilling contest. Alcaraz is favored to win with a probability of 67.48% compared to Paul's 32.52%. The match is anticipated to involve around 36 games in total.

Match Analysis

Carlos Alcaraz enters this match with a strong form index of 95.13 and an impressive Elo rating of 12050. His cumulative fatigue from the tournament stands at 522 minutes. Notably, Alcaraz boasts a surface strength index of 100.0, indicating dominance on hard surfaces, and his mean return index of 53.88 reflects his solid returning capabilities. In contrast, Tommy Paul, ranked 21, has a slightly lower form index of 95.09 and an Elo rating of 1982.47. His fatigue is also at 522 minutes, suggesting both players are equally rested. Paul has a higher mean serve index of 96.18 compared to Alcaraz's 50.74, showcasing his strong serving game. However, Alcaraz's return capabilities may balance this disparity, as his return index is significantly higher than Paul’s. Both players have displayed outstanding performances in their previous matches. Alcaraz has convincingly won all of his last three matches in straight sets, demonstrating his current form and confidence. Similarly, Paul has also secured victories without dropping sets in his last three matches, showcasing his resilience and competitive edge. This match-up will be a test of Alcaraz’s return game against Paul’s serving prowess.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 36.0 Most likely outcome: 35 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Carlos Alcaraz versus Tommy Paul. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Carlos Alcaraz versus Tommy Paul. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Carlos Alcaraz - Tommy Paul) -0.6 Most likely spread: -1 (Tommy Paul wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Carlos Alcaraz versus Tommy Paul. Positive values indicate Carlos Alcaraz winning more games, negative values indicate Tommy Paul winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Carlos Alcaraz versus Tommy Paul. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

In terms of aces prediction for this match, approximately 10 aces are expected, with both players capable of delivering powerful serves on the hard court surface. The nature of hard courts typically yields a moderate number of aces, favoring both strong servers and competent returners. The expected double faults prediction stands at around 5.63, which may indicate some tension or pressure moments, particularly if the match becomes closely contested.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 10.1 Most likely: 10 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 5.6 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Carlos Alcaraz versus Tommy Paul. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Carlos Alcaraz versus Tommy Paul. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Carlos Alcaraz versus Tommy Paul. Clay surface matches tend to produce more double faults due to fatigue in longer rallies.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Carlos Alcaraz versus Tommy Paul. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

Final Prediction

Carlos Alcaraz is positioned as the predicted winner largely due to his superior rank and return capabilities, alongside his flawless performance thus far in the tournament. A key aspect to monitor will be how effectively Alcaraz can handle Paul’s powerful serve and whether Paul can maintain his serving consistency under pressure.

Get Daily Tennis Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven tennis predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel