Monte Carlo Monaco Clay Masters 1000 Round of 32

Corentin Moutet vs Casper Ruud: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Corentin Moutet

Rank: #32
42%
VS

Casper Ruud

Rank: #12
58%
Expected Total Games: 24.1
Predicted Winner: Casper Ruud

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Ranking Trends

Corentin Moutet

  • Current #32 2026-03-30
  • 3 mo ago #32 2026-01-05
  • 6 mo ago #38 2025-09-29
  • 9 mo ago #69 2025-06-30
  • 12 mo ago #75 2025-04-07

Casper Ruud

  • Current #12 2026-03-30
  • 3 mo ago #12 2026-01-05
  • 6 mo ago #12 2025-09-29
  • 9 mo ago #15 2025-06-30
  • 12 mo ago #7 2025-04-07

Player Metrics

Corentin Moutet

Form Index: 47.3
ELO Rating: 1693.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1706.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 81.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 57.1
Clay: 42.3
Grass: 43.7
Serve Rating: 67.3
Return Rating: 70.8

Casper Ruud

Form Index: 49.2
ELO Rating: 1762.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1762.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 93.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 57.9
Clay: 47.7
Grass: 46.0
Serve Rating: 97.6
Return Rating: 86.1

Recent Matches

Corentin Moutet
✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Alexandre Muller (2-0) clay Monte Carlo 81 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Marco Trungelliti (1-2) clay Marrakech 155 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Taha Baadi (1-0) clay Marrakech 64 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Jannik Sinner (0-2) hard Miami 71 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Tomas Machac (0-2) hard Miami 108 min

Casper Ruud
✅ ❌ ❌ ✅ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Corentin Moutet
vs
0
Casper Ruud
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Monte-Carlo, Round of 32 on clay at a Masters 1000 event sets a classic contrast in styles. The model favors Casper Ruud to win (58.36%) over Corentin Moutet (41.64%), with a predicted total of about 24.12 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Ruud arrives as the higher-ranked player (No. 12) with a superior Elo (1762.88) compared with Moutet’s rank 32 and Elo 1693.07. Form indices are close (Ruud 49.17, Moutet 47.33), but Ruud’s mean serve index (97.58) towers over Moutet’s (67.26) by more than 30 points, and his mean return index (86.08) is also notably higher than Moutet’s (70.81). Both players show tournament fatigue—Moutet 81 minutes and Ruud 93 minutes on court—so endurance may play a role, and their surface strength indices are fairly similar (Ruud 47.74, Moutet 42.26). Over the last three matches Moutet has two wins and one loss: a straight-sets win at Monte-Carlo over Alexandre Muller, a long three-set loss in Marrakech to Marco Trungelliti, and a previous win in Marrakech. Ruud likewise has a recent win at Monte‑Carlo over Alexei Popyrin but also suffered two defeats on hard courts in Miami and Indian Wells. Those results show Moutet’s clay match play has been solid in the immediate build-up, while Ruud’s overall metrics—especially serve and return—remain stronger on paper despite slightly heavier minutes on court.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 24.1 Most likely outcome: 24 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Corentin Moutet - Casper Ruud) +1.9 Most likely spread: +2 (Corentin Moutet wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match is modest: predicted aces ~8.18 and an expected double faults figure of about 4.75. Clay typically suppresses big serves and lowers ace totals while contributing to longer rallies and fatigue-driven errors, so the expected double faults reflect that surface tendency. Given Ruud’s markedly higher serve rating, he is the most likely source of the bulk of those aces in this match.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 8.2 Most likely: 8 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.8 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Ruud’s edge comes from higher rank, better Elo and markedly stronger serve and return indices; those attributes give him the statistical advantage on clay. A key factor to watch is how Ruud’s serve holds up under tournament fatigue and whether Moutet’s return ability can convert that into early breaks.

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