Roland Garros France Clay Grand Slam Round of 32

Casper Ruud vs Tommy Paul: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Casper Ruud

Rank: #17
43%
VS

Tommy Paul

Rank: #26
57%
Expected Total Games: 37.0
Predicted Winner: Tommy Paul

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Ranking Trends

Casper Ruud

  • Current #17 2026-05-18
  • 3 mo ago #12 2026-02-23
  • 6 mo ago #12 2025-11-24
  • 9 mo ago #12 2025-08-25
  • 12 mo ago #8 2025-05-26

Tommy Paul

  • Current #26 2026-05-18
  • 3 mo ago #22 2026-02-23
  • 6 mo ago #20 2025-11-24
  • 9 mo ago #14 2025-08-25
  • 12 mo ago #12 2025-05-26

Player Metrics

Casper Ruud

Form Index: 67.4
ELO Rating: 1943.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1886.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 348.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 30.4
Clay: 46.5
Grass: 27.4
Serve Rating: 95.6
Return Rating: 88.9

Tommy Paul

Form Index: 59.8
ELO Rating: 1866.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1897.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 348.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 38.8
Clay: 40.7
Grass: 17.1
Serve Rating: 94.1
Return Rating: 86.5

Recent Matches

Casper Ruud
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Hamad Medjedovic (3-0) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Roman Safiullin (3-2) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Mariano Navone (0-2) clay Geneva 101 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Alexei Popyrin (2-0) clay Geneva 72 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Raphael Collignon (2-0) clay Geneva 87 min

Tommy Paul
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Lorenzo Sonego (3-0) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Rinky Hijikata (3-1) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Daniel Altmaier (2-0) clay Hamburg 98 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Tomas Martin Etcheverry (2-1) clay Hamburg 213 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Ethan Quinn (2-0) clay Hamburg 70 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Casper Ruud
vs
0
Tommy Paul
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At Roland Garros in the round of 32 on clay, Tommy Paul is narrowly favored over Casper Ruud in what should be an intriguing baseline battle in a Grand Slam setting. The model gives Paul a 57.11% chance to win versus 42.89% for Ruud, with a predicted total of about 36.96 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Casper Ruud arrives as the higher-ranked player (No. 17) with a stronger Elo (1943.5) and a higher form index (67.36) than Tommy Paul (rank 26, Elo 1866.6, form 59.76). Ruud’s surface strength index on clay is 46.53, slightly ahead of Paul’s 40.71, and Ruud’s mean serve and return indexes are 95.55 and 88.91 respectively. Paul’s mean serve and return indexes sit at 94.06 and 86.51. Both players show identical cumulative fatigue from the tournament (348 minutes), so conditioning and recovery will be a shared factor heading into the match. Recent results favor Paul for momentum: he is 3-0 in his last three matches (including straight-set wins in the last two rounds at Roland Garros), while Ruud is 2-1 over his past three, having dropped a clay match in Geneva prior to back-to-back wins at Roland Garros. The lengths of their recent wins—two marathon 174-minute matches apiece in the opening rounds—underscore both players’ durability but also explain the equal fatigue total.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 37.0 Most likely outcome: 36 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Casper Ruud - Tommy Paul) -0.5 Most likely spread: -1 (Tommy Paul wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this meeting is modest — the predicted aces total is about 13.52 — while the double faults prediction is lower but notable, with expected double faults around 4.79. On clay, expected aces tend to be reduced because the surface slows the ball and offers returners more time; that will temper the serve advantage for either player. Neither player has a drastically superior serve index, so the predicted aces figure reflects similar serving profiles rather than a single dominant big server.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 13.5 Most likely: 13 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.8 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

46.2% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO5

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Casper Ruud's perspective)

3-0 Most likely set score (25.5%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Paul’s slight edge in the model comes from recent winning momentum and marginally better in-match outcomes reflected in the probabilities, despite Ruud’s higher ranking and Elo. A decisive factor to watch will be how both handle long baseline rallies under accumulated fatigue — whoever maintains serve consistency and minimizes double faults will likely prevail.

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