Indian Wells CA, U.S.A. Hard Masters 1000 Round of 32

Valentin Vacherot vs Casper Ruud: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Valentin Vacherot

Rank: #26
45%
VS

Casper Ruud

Rank: #13
55%
Expected Total Games: 23.9
Predicted Winner: Casper Ruud

Ranking Trends

Valentin Vacherot

  • Current Rank: #26 (2026-03-02)
  • 3 Months Ago: #31 (2025-12-01)
  • 6 Months Ago: #216 (2025-08-25)
  • 9 Months Ago: #237 (2025-05-26)
  • 12 Months Ago: #262 (2025-03-03)

Casper Ruud

  • Current Rank: #13 (2026-03-02)
  • 3 Months Ago: #12 (2025-12-01)
  • 6 Months Ago: #12 (2025-08-25)
  • 9 Months Ago: #8 (2025-05-26)
  • 12 Months Ago: #5 (2025-03-03)

Player Metrics

Valentin Vacherot

Form Index: 51.2
ELO Rating: 1397.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1549.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 94.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 10.7
Clay: 9.9
Grass: 12.3
Serve Rating: 80.5
Return Rating: 43.0

Casper Ruud

Form Index: 48.2
ELO Rating: 2414.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1900.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 86.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 14.4
Clay: 22.3
Grass: 23.9
Serve Rating: 97.5
Return Rating: 86.4

Recent Matches

Valentin Vacherot
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Nuno Borges (2-0) hard Indian Wells 94 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Brandon Nakashima (1-2) hard Acapulco 107 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Gael Monfils (2-0) hard Acapulco 68 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Coleman Wong (2-1) hard Acapulco 117 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Alex Michelsen (0-2) hard Delray Beach 88 min

Casper Ruud
✅ ❌ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Alexander Shevchenko (2-0) hard Indian Wells 86 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Yibing Wu (0-2) hard Acapulco 125 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Sebastian Korda (1-2) hard Delray Beach 126 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Marcos Giron (2-1) hard Delray Beach 142 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Ben Shelton (1-3) hard Australian Open 174 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Valentin Vacherot
vs
0
Casper Ruud
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At Indian Wells in California, round of 32 action on outdoor hard courts sees Valentin Vacherot face Casper Ruud in a Masters 1000 setting. The model favors Casper Ruud to advance (54.53% to Vacherot’s 45.47%), with a predicted total of 23.94 games in the match — a compact, two-set affair is expected.

Match Analysis

Ruud enters with the higher ranking (13 vs 26) and a pronounced Elo advantage (2413.99 vs 1397.60), signaling a clear quality gap in the underlying ratings. Vacherot brings a stronger recent form index (51.18) than Ruud (48.23) and arrives slightly more fatigued from the event (94 vs 86 minutes on court). Surface strength indices are modest for both — Ruud 14.42, Vacherot 10.73 — suggesting neither is a dominant hard-court specialist within the proprietary scale. Serve and return profiles diverge notably: Ruud’s mean serve index (97.49) is substantially higher than Vacherot’s (80.51), a difference greater than 5 points, and his mean return index (86.43) far outstrips Vacherot’s (43.02), also a large gap. Those contrasts imply Ruud can both create free points on serve and apply pressure on Vacherot’s service games. Over the last three matches Vacherot has shown resilience — wins over Monfils and Borges and a loss to Nakashima — while Ruud’s recent sequence includes a straight-sets win over Shevchenko but two losses in earlier events (to Wu and Korda), indicating some inconsistency entering the tournament.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.9 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match sits at 15.91 total; predicted aces will largely be driven by Ruud’s superior serve index, so he should account for a larger share. Double faults prediction is 5.94 expected double faults combined; given the medium-paced hard court, this surface produces a moderate ace count and a modest double-fault tally. With Ruud’s higher serve rating, expect the ace count to tilt in his favor while double faults remain contained.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 15.9 Most likely: 15 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.9 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Ruud’s edge comes from superior Elo and markedly better serve and return metrics, which should be decisive on a balanced hard court. The key factor to watch is Ruud’s returning aggression against Vacherot’s serve — if Ruud converts early breaks, the match will likely fall in line with the prediction.

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