Australian Open Australia Hard Grand Slam Round of 128

Christopher O'Connell vs Nishesh Basavareddy: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Christopher O'Connell

Rank: #114
56%
VS

Nishesh Basavareddy

Rank: #172
44%
Expected Total Games: 39.4
Predicted Winner: Christopher O'Connell

Ranking Trends

Christopher O'Connell

  • Current Rank: #114 (2026-01-05)
  • 3 Months Ago: #105 (2025-10-20)
  • 6 Months Ago: #77 (2025-07-21)
  • 9 Months Ago: #87 (2025-04-21)
  • 12 Months Ago: #70 (2025-01-13)

Nishesh Basavareddy

  • Current Rank: #172 (2026-01-05)
  • 3 Months Ago: #123 (2025-10-20)
  • 6 Months Ago: #112 (2025-07-21)
  • 9 Months Ago: #107 (2025-04-21)
  • 12 Months Ago: #107 (2025-01-13)

Player Metrics

Christopher O'Connell

Form Index: 23.9
ELO Rating: 521.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1574.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 4.2
Clay: 3.7
Grass: 3.3
Serve Rating: 72.5
Return Rating: 59.5

Nishesh Basavareddy

Form Index: 76.5
ELO Rating: 419.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1552.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 348.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 6.1
Clay: 2.4
Grass: 3.5
Serve Rating: 96.8
Return Rating: 92.2

Recent Matches

Christopher O'Connell
❌ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Jacob Fearnley (0-2) hard Adelaide 117 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Dane Sweeny (1-2) hard Brisbane 146 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Nikoloz Basilashvili (2-0) hard Brisbane 62 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Denis Shapovalov (0-2) hard Shanghai 72 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Damir Dzumhur (2-0) hard Shanghai 97 min

Nishesh Basavareddy
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Sebastian Ofner (2-1) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs George Loffhagen (2-1) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Jan-Lennard Struff (0-2) hard Hong Kong 85 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Yunchaokete Bu (2-0) hard Hong Kong 106 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Valentin Vacherot (1-2) hard Shanghai 151 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Christopher O'Connell
vs
0
Nishesh Basavareddy
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 128 at the Australian Open, Christopher O'Connell is set to face Nishesh Basavareddy on hard courts in Australia. The matchup promises to be competitive, with O'Connell slightly favored to win, holding a 56.05% probability compared to Basavareddy's 43.95%. The expected total number of games in this match is around 39.44, indicating a potential for a closely fought encounter.

Match Analysis

Christopher O'Connell, ranked 114, has a form index of 23.89 and an Elo rating of 521.12. His fatigue level is currently at 0 minutes, suggesting he is fresh for this match. His surface strength index is 4.21, while his mean serve index stands at 72.54 and mean return index at 59.48. In contrast, Nishesh Basavareddy, ranked 172, boasts a higher form index of 76.54, an Elo rating of 419.81, but carries a significant fatigue level of 348 minutes from prior matches. His surface strength index is slightly better at 6.10, with an impressive mean serve index of 96.82 and mean return index of 92.19. The 24-point difference in their serve indices indicates O'Connell may struggle to match Basavareddy's serving prowess on this surface. Both players have had mixed results in their recent performances. O'Connell has lost two of his last three matches, including a defeat to Jacob Fearnley in his latest outing, while managing one victory against Nikoloz Basilashvili. Basavareddy, on the other hand, has shown better form recently, winning his last two matches at the Australian Open against Sebastian Ofner and George Loffhagen, both in competitive three-set matches.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 39.4 Most likely outcome: 39 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

In this matchup, the expected aces are projected at 13.89, while the expected double faults are estimated at 5.29. Given the hard surface of the Australian Open, which balances the advantages for both strong servers and returners, these predictions suggest a moderate ace count. Basavareddy's significantly higher mean serve index may lead to a greater number of aces, while the expected double faults could be influenced by the pressure of a Grand Slam setting.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 13.9 Most likely: 13 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.3 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Christopher O'Connell's edge comes from his experience on the big stage, despite recent struggles. However, the key factor to watch will be Basavareddy's serve; if he can maintain his serving consistency and capitalize on O'Connell's return game, he could very well upset the odds in this encounter.

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