Miami FL, U.S.A. Hard Masters 1000 Round of 64

Corentin Moutet vs Tomas Machac: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Corentin Moutet

Rank: #33
46%
VS

Tomas Machac

Rank: #48
54%
Expected Total Games: 23.7
Predicted Winner: Tomas Machac

Ranking Trends

Corentin Moutet

  • Current Rank: #33 (2026-03-16)
  • 3 Months Ago: #35 (2025-12-15)
  • 6 Months Ago: #39 (2025-09-15)
  • 9 Months Ago: #89 (2025-06-16)
  • 12 Months Ago: #76 (2025-03-17)

Tomas Machac

  • Current Rank: #48 (2026-03-16)
  • 3 Months Ago: #32 (2025-12-15)
  • 6 Months Ago: #22 (2025-09-15)
  • 9 Months Ago: #23 (2025-06-16)
  • 12 Months Ago: #21 (2025-03-17)

Player Metrics

Corentin Moutet

Form Index: 24.7
ELO Rating: 1330.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1576.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 10.0
Clay: 10.5
Grass: 11.8
Serve Rating: 65.0
Return Rating: 56.1

Tomas Machac

Form Index: 46.3
ELO Rating: 1413.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1696.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 91.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 11.6
Clay: 10.2
Grass: 10.4
Serve Rating: 96.4
Return Rating: 88.2

Recent Matches

Corentin Moutet
❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Aleksandar Kovacevic (0-2) hard Indian Wells 100 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Alexander Zverev (0-2) hard Acapulco 91 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Tommy Paul (1-2) hard Delray Beach 150 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Carlos Alcaraz (0-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Michael Zheng (3-1) hard Australian Open 174 min

Tomas Machac
✅ ❌ ❌ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Emilio Nava (2-1) hard Miami 91 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Jannik Sinner (0-2) hard Doha 70 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Arthur Gea (1-1) hard Montpellier 75 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Lorenzo Musetti (2-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Stefanos Tsitsipas (3-1) hard Australian Open 174 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Corentin Moutet
vs
0
Tomas Machac
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At the Miami Masters in Florida, the round-of-64 clash on hard court pits Corentin Moutet against Tomas Machac. The model favors Machac to advance, projecting a 53.54% chance for Machac and a 46.46% chance for Moutet, with an expected total of about 23.7 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Moutet arrives as the higher-ranked player (No. 33) but carries a lower form index (24.70) and an Elo of 1330.47. He is fresh in this event with zero minutes of tournament fatigue and shows a moderate mean serve index (64.97) and return index (56.11). His surface strength index on hard is 9.96. By contrast, Machac (rank 48) posts a stronger form index (46.32) and a substantially higher Elo at 1413.42. He has logged 91 minutes on court in Miami (some fatigue) but registers very high mean serve (96.39) and return (88.25) indices and a surface strength index of 11.58. The differences in serve and return indices between the two players are large (both >30 points), which is likely to shape the patterns of service holds and breaks. Looking at recent results, Moutet has struggled in his last three hard-court outings, losing to Kovacevic at Indian Wells and falling to Alexander Zverev and Tommy Paul in earlier tournaments; those matches included long durations and straight-set defeats in two of them. Machac comes off a win in the Miami 128 against Emilio Nava (2–1) after earlier losses to Sinner and in Montpellier, giving him a modest recent lift in confidence despite the accumulated minutes.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.7 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the contest is modest: a predicted aces total of about 6.72. Expected double faults for the match sit near 4.11. Hard courts are medium-paced with consistent bounce, so they typically produce a balanced ace count; Machac’s substantially higher serve rating suggests he will drive the bulk of the predicted aces, while Moutet’s lower serve index points to fewer free points on his serve.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 6.7 Most likely: 6 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.1 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Machac’s higher Elo, stronger recent form index and dominant serve/return metrics give him the edge, even accounting for some tournament fatigue. The key factor to watch is how effectively Moutet can neutralize Machac’s serve — hold-to-hold dynamics on return games will likely decide the outcome.

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