Santiago Chile Clay Atp 250 Round of 16

Cristian Garin vs Sebastian Baez: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Cristian Garin

Rank: #93
30%
VS

Sebastian Baez

Rank: #52
70%
Expected Total Games: 22.3
Predicted Winner: Sebastian Baez

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Ranking Trends

Cristian Garin

  • Current #93 2026-02-23
  • 3 mo ago #80 2025-11-24
  • 6 mo ago #126 2025-08-25
  • 9 mo ago #123 2025-05-26
  • 12 mo ago #147 2025-02-24

Sebastian Baez

  • Current #52 2026-02-23
  • 3 mo ago #45 2025-11-24
  • 6 mo ago #39 2025-08-25
  • 9 mo ago #38 2025-05-26
  • 12 mo ago #31 2025-02-24

Player Metrics

Cristian Garin

Form Index: 24.2
ELO Rating: 655.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1529.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 141.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 3.3
Clay: 4.6
Grass: 5.8
Serve Rating: 53.7
Return Rating: 64.2

Sebastian Baez

Form Index: 37.0
ELO Rating: 1195.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1668.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 8.9
Clay: 8.4
Grass: 10.0
Serve Rating: 97.2
Return Rating: 93.9

Recent Matches

Cristian Garin
✅ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌

Sebastian Baez
❌ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Cristian Garin
vs
0
Sebastian Baez
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This round-of-16 clash in Santiago, Chile (clay, ATP 250 level) pits Cristian Garin against Sebastián Báez. The model favors Báez, projecting him as the likely winner with a 70.38% chance to prevail versus 29.62% for Garin, and an expected total of about 22.29 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Báez arrives with a clear statistical advantage: world ranking 52 vs Garin’s 93, an Elo of 1195.45 against 655.12, and a higher form index (36.95 vs 24.17). Garin carries 141 minutes of cumulative court time in this event while Báez shows 0 minutes, so freshness is in Báez’s favor. Surface strength indices are both modest on clay, but Báez (8.44) rates above Garin (4.65). The mean serve index gap is large (Báez 97.20, Garin 53.74), and the mean return index gap is also substantial (Báez 93.94, Garin 64.22), both differences well over the 5‑point threshold and likely decisive. Recent form shows mixed results for both. Garin beat Juan Manuel Cerúndolo in Santiago (a three-set match lasting 141 minutes) but lost his previous two matches in Rio and at the Australian Open. Báez’s last three matches include one straight-sets win (Buenos Aires) and two recent losses in Rio and Buenos Aires; his cumulative fatigue is nil, suggesting recovery between events.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 22.3 Most likely outcome: 22 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Cristian Garin - Sebastian Baez) +0.3 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this contest sits at about 15.35 total predicted aces, while the double faults prediction is roughly 3.91 expected double faults. On clay, the slower surface and higher bounce typically suppress ace totals and can raise unforced serving errors, so these numbers reflect that balance. Given Báez’s far superior serve index, he is likely to account for a disproportionate share of the predicted aces.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 15.3 Most likely: 15 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 3.9 Most likely: 3 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Báez’s edge comes from superior Elo, much stronger serve and return metrics, and greater freshness. The key factor to watch is whether Garin can neutralize Báez’s serve and force longer rallies; if he cannot, Báez’s statistical advantages should carry him through.

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