Damir Dzumhur vs Mattia Bellucci: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

On paper this is a close matchup. Dzumhur sits at No. 84 with a form index of 38.71 and an Elo of 1518.44; Bellucci is slightly higher at No. 78 with a stronger form index of 49.33 and Elo 1565.76. Both enter the match without accumulation of tournament fatigue (0 minutes on court), and their clay surface strength indices are nearly identical (Dzumhur 39.48, Bellucci 38.02), so neither has a clear surface pedigree edge. Serve and return metrics tilt noticeably toward Bellucci. His mean serve index (98.13) outstrips Dzumhur’s (72.42) by more than 25 points, a sizeable advantage likely to affect service holds and free points. Bellucci also shows the higher mean return index (89.58 vs Dzumhur’s 82.13), so he is preferred both on serve and when returning. Recent form tells a slightly different story: Dzumhur has lost his last three matches on clay in straight sets, while Bellucci’s recent results are mixed — a strong three-set win in Marrakech followed by two defeats. Taken together, Bellucci’s current form and superior serve/return indices give him the edge.