Daniel Altmaier vs Hugo Gaston: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

The model’s edge for Altmaier comes mainly from serve & return game (+4.3 percentage points) and recent results at this level (+4.1 points), with supporting lifts from recent form, surface fit and overall strength. Altmaier brings a slightly better profile on the slow surface: ranked 60 with an Elo of 1561.13, a form index of 32.19 and a clay surface strength index of 19.91. Gaston, ranked 118, posts a higher Elo (1593.52) and a stronger recent form index (47.32), but a lower clay surface strength index of 10.70 — the model interprets that as less comfortable on clay. Both players report zero tournament fatigue entering Bastad. On serve/return metrics, Altmaier’s mean serve index is 96.10 and his mean return index 91.17; Gaston’s serve index is 93.51 with a return index of 87.68. Neither gap exceeds five points, so they’re comparable, but the model attributes a modest net advantage to Altmaier’s combined serving and returning profile. Over the last three matches, Altmaier has one win (a straight‑sets victory) and two recent losses on grass (including a four‑set defeat), while Gaston has two wins and a loss at recent grass events, including a straight loss to a top player. Those mixed recent results feed the model’s moderate probabilistic edge toward Altmaier.