Washington DC, U.S.A. Hard Atp 500 Round of 32

Alex Michelsen vs Daniel Evans Prediction

Alex Michelsen

Rank: #34
66%
VS

Daniel Evans

Rank: #144
34%
Predicted Games Played: 22.0
Predicted Winner: Alex Michelsen

Ranking Trends

Alex Michelsen

  • Current Rank: #34 (2025-07-21)
  • 3 Months Ago: #38 (2025-04-21)
  • 6 Months Ago: #42 (2025-01-13)
  • 9 Months Ago: #43 (2024-10-21)
  • 12 Months Ago: #61 (2024-07-22)

Daniel Evans

  • Current Rank: #144 (2025-07-21)
  • 3 Months Ago: #197 (2025-04-21)
  • 6 Months Ago: #167 (2025-01-13)
  • 9 Months Ago: #161 (2024-10-21)
  • 12 Months Ago: #59 (2024-07-22)

Player Metrics

Alex Michelsen

Form Index: 32.2
ELO Rating: 1217.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1595.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 11.8
Clay: 9.3
Grass: 9.5
Serve Rating: 97.4
Return Rating: 88.8

Daniel Evans

Form Index: 57.1
ELO Rating: 584.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1617.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 149.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 6.0
Clay: 3.0
Grass: 5.2
Serve Rating: 95.3
Return Rating: 86.6

Recent Matches

Alex Michelsen
❌ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Miomir Kecmanovic (2-3) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Corentin Moutet (0-2) grass Mallorca 115 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Roberto Bautista Agut (2-0) grass Mallorca 103 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Brandon Holt (2-0) grass Mallorca 78 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Daniil Medvedev (0-2) grass Halle 85 min

Daniel Evans
✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Zizou Bergs (2-1) hard Washington 149 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Novak Djokovic (0-3) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Jay Clarke (3-0) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Jenson Brooksby (0-2) grass Eastbourne 83 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Tommy Paul (2-1) grass Eastbourne 134 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Alex Michelsen
vs
0
Daniel Evans
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The matchup between Alex Michelsen and Daniel Evans in the Round of 32 at the Washington tournament promises to be an intriguing contest on hard court. With Michelsen's current form and ranking placing him as a strong contender, he is predicted to emerge victorious with a probability of 65.56%. In contrast, Evans holds a lower probability of 34.44%. The anticipated total number of games played is estimated at 22.

Match Analysis

Alex Michelsen, ranked 34, boasts a form index of 32.23, indicating a solid level of play. His Elo rating stands at 1217.22, and noteworthy is his zero cumulative fatigue from the current tournament, suggesting he is fresh for this encounter. Michelsen's surface strength index of 11.82 is higher than Evans', alongside a mean serve index of 97.43 compared to Evans' 95.28, showcasing his superior serving capability. Furthermore, Michelsen's mean return index of 88.79 also exceeds Evans' 86.55, highlighting his effectiveness in returning serve. Daniel Evans, currently ranked 144, has a form index of 57.12 and an Elo rating of 584.36. His cumulative fatigue from the tournament is 149 minutes, which could impact his performance. Evans' recent matches show a mixed bag; he won against Zizou Bergs but faced a tough loss to Novak Djokovic in Wimbledon. Michelsen's recent performances have been less consistent, with a win against Roberto Bautista Agut but losses to Miomir Kecmanovic and Corentin Moutet.

Final Prediction

Michelsen's advantages in serving and returning, combined with his lack of fatigue, give him a significant edge over Evans in this matchup. A key factor to observe will be how Michelsen capitalizes on his serving game, which could dictate the flow and outcome of the match.