Daniel Merida vs Andrey Rublev: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

The model's edge for Rublev comes mainly from recent record by level and overall strength. Recent record by level contributes 7.2 percentage points toward Rublev, and overall strength adds 3.9 points. Those pushes outweigh advantages that tilt toward Merida, such as age and recent form. Age gives Merida a 3.2 point bump, and his recent form contributes 2.1 points in his favor. Looking at the underlying numbers, Merida is ranked 39 with a form index of 72.30 and an Elo of 1795.18. Rublev is ranked 24 with a lower form index of 42.42 and an Elo of 1763.86. Both players show identical tournament fatigue at 174 minutes on court. Merida’s surface strength index is 32.72, Rublev’s is 29.56, so neither player posts a high hard court specialization in this model. Serve and return profiles are similar. Merida’s mean serve index is 95.86 and his mean return index is 91.51. Rublev’s mean serve index is 96.15 and his mean return index is 87.77, differences that are modest rather than decisive. Recent matches tell a mixed story. Merida arrives after a straight sets win over Marton Fucsovics at the Open, bookended by a loss to Taylor Fritz in Cincinnati and a win over Zizou Bergs. Rublev’s last three include a five set win over Otto Virtanen, a loss to Nuno Borges, and a win over Pablo Carreno Busta. Both players have shown resilience and occasional volatility in close matches.