Vienna Austria Hard Atp 500 Round of 32

Daniel Merida vs Daniil Medvedev Prediction

Daniel Merida

Rank: #42
14%
VS

Daniil Medvedev

Rank: #5
86%
Expected Total Games: 24.8
Predicted Winner: Daniil Medvedev

Why the Model Favors Daniil Medvedev

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Recent record by level +10.1 Daniil Medvedev
Serve & return game +6.5 Daniil Medvedev
Overall strength +6.1 Daniil Medvedev
Surface fit +5.4 Daniil Medvedev
Recent form +4.6 Daniil Medvedev

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 86% for Daniil Medvedev. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Daniel Merida

  • Current #42 2026-10-26
  • 3 mo ago #61 2026-07-27
  • 6 mo ago #102 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #164 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #169 2025-10-27

Daniil Medvedev

  • Current #5 2026-10-26
  • 3 mo ago #7 2026-07-27
  • 6 mo ago #10 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #12 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #13 2025-10-27

Player Metrics

Daniel Merida

Form Index: 42.8
ELO Rating: 1760.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1794.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 30.7
Clay: 24.9
Grass: 7.9
Serve Rating: 95.7
Return Rating: 91.3

Daniil Medvedev

Form Index: 53.1
ELO Rating: 1953.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1927.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 49.5
Clay: 28.8
Grass: 24.1
Serve Rating: 96.2
Return Rating: 89.1

Recent Matches

Daniel Merida
❌ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Botic van de Zandschulp (1-2) hard Shanghai 108 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Alex Michelsen (0-3) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Andrey Rublev (3-1) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Marton Fucsovics (3-0) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Taylor Fritz (0-2) hard Cincinnati 83 min

Daniil Medvedev
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Daniel Merida
vs
1
Daniil Medvedev
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 1

Key Prediction Insights

Daniil Medvedev is strongly favored, at 86% to Daniel Merida’s 14%. The match is projected to last 24.8 games.

Match Analysis

Medvedev has won his three most recent listed hard-court matches, including against Terence Atmane and Alexander Bublik. Merida has lost his last two, to Botic van de Zandschulp and Alex Michelsen, though he is coming off a win over Andrey Rublev in his recent run. The ranking gap, fifth to 42nd, reflects Medvedev’s advantage in overall strength, and his hard-court profile is also stronger. Their serve profiles are close, and Merida’s return profile is competitive, so Medvedev’s forecast advantage is not simply a matter of overpowering Merida on serve.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 24.8 Most likely outcome: 24 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Daniel Merida - Daniil Medvedev) -4.9 Most likely spread: -6 (Daniil Medvedev wins 6 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Medvedev is projected for 7.7 aces to Merida’s 3.0, with his slightly stronger serve profile supporting the higher count. The forecast has Merida at 2.8 double faults and Medvedev at 3.5.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 10.6 Most likely: 8 aces Per player: Daniel Merida 3.0 + Daniil Medvedev 7.7
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 6.2 Most likely: 5 double faults Per player: Daniel Merida 2.8 + Daniil Medvedev 3.5

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Daniel Merida

Expected 3.0 aces

Daniil Medvedev

Expected 7.7 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Daniel Merida

Expected 2.8 double faults

Daniil Medvedev

Expected 3.5 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

31.2% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Daniel Merida's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (56.3%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Merida’s return strength is his clearest way to disrupt the forecast. If he can put sustained pressure on Medvedev’s service games, the favorite’s hard-court and overall-strength advantages may be less decisive.

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