Vienna Austria Hard Atp 500 Round of 16

Cameron Norrie vs Daniil Medvedev Prediction

Cameron Norrie

Rank: #41
16%
VS

Daniil Medvedev

Rank: #5
84%
Expected Total Games: 25.4
Predicted Winner: Daniil Medvedev

Why the Model Favors Daniil Medvedev

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Recent record by level +9.6 Daniil Medvedev
Surface fit +6.7 Daniil Medvedev
Overall strength +6.4 Daniil Medvedev
Recent form +5.6 Daniil Medvedev
Serve & return game +4.1 Daniil Medvedev

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 84% for Daniil Medvedev. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Also available in Claude and Perplexity. Query these predictions in plain language: our native connector lets your AI assistant call our models on demand, no code.

Set it up

Ranking Trends

Cameron Norrie

  • Current #41 2026-10-26
  • 3 mo ago #39 2026-07-27
  • 6 mo ago #23 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #27 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #31 2025-10-27

Daniil Medvedev

  • Current #5 2026-10-26
  • 3 mo ago #7 2026-07-27
  • 6 mo ago #10 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #12 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #13 2025-10-27

Player Metrics

Cameron Norrie

Form Index: 26.8
ELO Rating: 1653.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1727.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 91.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 27.8
Clay: 22.8
Grass: 22.7
Serve Rating: 96.6
Return Rating: 89.6

Daniil Medvedev

Form Index: 60.4
ELO Rating: 1963.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1931.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 87.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 50.2
Clay: 28.8
Grass: 24.1
Serve Rating: 96.2
Return Rating: 89.1

Recent Matches

Cameron Norrie
✅ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌

Daniil Medvedev
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Cameron Norrie
vs
2
Daniil Medvedev
Hard
0 - 1
Clay
1 - 1
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Medvedev is a strong favourite in this Vienna Round of 16 match, with the forecast giving him an 84% chance of winning and Norrie 16%. The expected total is 25.4 games.

Match Analysis

The main separation is Medvedev’s overall level and hard-court strength. He is ranked fifth to Norrie’s 41st, and the surface comparison also favours him. Their serve and return profiles are close, so the forecast rests more on Medvedev’s broader advantage than on a clear gap in either area. Recent form adds to that case. Medvedev has won his last three listed matches, including a straight-set Vienna win over Daniel Merida. Norrie’s latest result was a straight-set win over Francisco Cerundolo, but it followed losses to Benjamin Bonzi and Dalibor Svrcina.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 25.4 Most likely outcome: 25 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Cameron Norrie - Daniil Medvedev) -5.0 Most likely spread: -6 (Daniil Medvedev wins 6 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Medvedev is projected to hit 9.2 aces and 3.2 double faults, compared with 3.7 aces and 2.1 double faults for Norrie. Their mean serve ratings are nearly level, making the projected ace gap a notable distinction in this matchup.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 12.7 Most likely: 10 aces Per player: Cameron Norrie 3.7 + Daniil Medvedev 9.2
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.3 Most likely: 4 double faults Per player: Cameron Norrie 2.1 + Daniil Medvedev 3.2

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Cameron Norrie

Expected 3.7 aces

Daniil Medvedev

Expected 9.2 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Cameron Norrie

Expected 2.1 double faults

Daniil Medvedev

Expected 3.2 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

32.5% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Cameron Norrie's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (54.9%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Norrie’s slightly stronger return profile gives him his best chance to challenge the forecast. If he can use it to put sustained pressure on Medvedev’s service games, he has a chance to make the match more competitive.

Get Daily Tennis Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven tennis predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel