Daniil Medvedev vs Flavio Cobolli: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Medvedev brings a higher Elo (1964.65) and the superior ranking (10) into this match, with a solid form index of 65.80 and 198 minutes of court time in Madrid so far. His surface strength index on clay sits at 44.31 and his mean serve index is 77.03. Cobolli, ranked 13, posts a comparable form index (66.12) but a lower Elo (1778.79) and slightly heavier fatigue (220 minutes). His surface strength is marginally higher at 46.29. Notably, Cobolli’s mean serve index (97.19) is substantially higher than Medvedev’s — a difference well over five points — and his mean return index (90.27) also exceeds Medvedev’s by more than five points, placing emphasis on Cobolli’s two-way game on paper. Looking at recent matches, both players arrive with two wins and one loss in their last three outings. Medvedev has beaten Kjaer and Marozsan in Madrid (match lengths 69 and 129 minutes) and lost earlier in Monte Carlo to Berrettini (49 minutes). Cobolli defeated Vallejo and Carabelli in Madrid (73 and 147 minutes) and lost in Munich to Ben Shelton (90 minutes). Those results show both players capable of winning extended clay encounters, although Cobolli has accumulated a touch more time on court in this event.