Beijing China Hard Atp 500 Quarterfinals

Daniil Medvedev vs Francisco Cerundolo Prediction

Daniil Medvedev

Rank: #6
68%
VS

Francisco Cerundolo

Rank: #22
32%
Expected Total Games: 23.6
Predicted Winner: Daniil Medvedev

Why the Model Favors Daniil Medvedev

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Recent record by level +6.3 Daniil Medvedev
Serve & return game +6.0 Daniil Medvedev
Surface fit +3.5 Daniil Medvedev
Recent form +2.3 Daniil Medvedev
Overall strength +1.1 Daniil Medvedev

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 68% for Daniil Medvedev. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Daniil Medvedev

  • Current #6 2026-09-28
  • 3 mo ago #9 2026-06-29
  • 6 mo ago #10 2026-03-30
  • 9 mo ago #13 2025-12-29
  • 12 mo ago #18 2025-09-29

Francisco Cerundolo

  • Current #22 2026-09-28
  • 3 mo ago #21 2026-06-29
  • 6 mo ago #20 2026-03-30
  • 9 mo ago #21 2025-12-29
  • 12 mo ago #21 2025-09-29

Player Metrics

Daniil Medvedev

Form Index: 54.2
ELO Rating: 1858.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1894.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 168.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 45.8
Clay: 28.8
Grass: 24.1
Serve Rating: 96.8
Return Rating: 91.0

Francisco Cerundolo

Form Index: 51.7
ELO Rating: 1827.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1848.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 243.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 37.8
Clay: 27.6
Grass: 20.4
Serve Rating: 95.1
Return Rating: 90.0

Recent Matches

Daniil Medvedev
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

Francisco Cerundolo
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Daniil Medvedev
vs
1
Francisco Cerundolo
Hard
0 - 1
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Medvedev is favored to beat Cerundolo, with the win estimate at 67% to 33%. The projection is for 22.7 total games.

Match Analysis

The forecast leans most on Medvedev’s stronger recent record at this level. That gives him the clearest advantage in a match where the other gaps are smaller. Medvedev also has a better hard-court fit and a slight advantage in both serving and returning. On a medium-paced surface, that balance could help him earn more pressure points without relying solely on his serve. Cerundolo has the tools to stay close, but the available comparisons favor Medvedev across both sides of the game.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.6 Most likely outcome: 22 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Daniil Medvedev - Francisco Cerundolo) +1.6 Most likely spread: +1 (Daniil Medvedev wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Medvedev is projected for 8.3 aces and 3.7 double faults, compared with 3.1 aces and 3.2 double faults for Cerundolo. Medvedev’s modest serving advantage accounts for much of the ace gap, while the hard court’s consistent bounce is less likely to produce the ace totals associated with faster grass.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 11.3 Most likely: 9 aces Per player: Daniil Medvedev 8.3 + Francisco Cerundolo 3.2
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 6.4 Most likely: 5 double faults Per player: Daniil Medvedev 3.5 + Francisco Cerundolo 3.0

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Daniil Medvedev

Expected 8.3 aces

Francisco Cerundolo

Expected 3.2 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Daniil Medvedev

Expected 3.5 double faults

Francisco Cerundolo

Expected 3.0 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

28.6% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Daniil Medvedev's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (39.7%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Medvedev’s projected double-fault count is a possible opening for Cerundolo. If those errors give the Argentine extra chances to attack the second serve, his relatively close return level could make the match more competitive than the forecast suggests.

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