Daniil Medvedev vs Matteo Berrettini: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Medvedev arrives as the higher-ranked player (No. 10) with a substantially stronger Elo (2001.33 vs 1653.55) and no accumulated fatigue from this event, which matters over long clay rallies. His form index is 49.15 and his surface strength index sits at 44.15 — respectable but not dominant on clay. Berrettini is down the rankings at 91, but shows a slightly higher recent form index (55.42) and carried 23 minutes of court time into this round. Their mean serve indices differ markedly: Berrettini’s 99.32 versus Medvedev’s 76.05 — a gap of more than 20 points that underlines Berrettini’s status as the bigger server. Their mean return indices also diverge by roughly 21 points in Berrettini’s favor (87.39 vs 66.55), an unusual combination that suggests both players bring distinct weapons to the court. Over the last three matches the patterns are mixed. Medvedev’s recent results across hard events show inconsistency: he has recorded one win and two defeats in the listed matches, mixing routine wins with tough losses against top opponents and clocking lengthy matches. Berrettini’s three‑match log also shows one win and two losses, including a short first‑round victory in Monte‑Carlo and a marathon match in Marrakech, indicating match‑to‑match variability and some recent court time on clay.