Daniil Medvedev vs Stefanos Tsitsipas: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Medvedev arrives as the higher-ranked player (No. 11) with a stronger Elo rating (2468.23) and a slightly higher form index (51.99) than Tsitsipas (rank 32, Elo 1266.38, form 47.42). Fatigue tallies show Medvedev with 75 minutes on court in the event so far versus Tsitsipas’s 84 minutes. Their surface strength indices are both low but favor Medvedev marginally (12.94 vs 10.17). There are notable gaps in the serve and return profiles: Tsitsipas’s mean serve index (97.70) exceeds Medvedev’s (72.86) by over 24 points, and Tsitsipas also holds a substantially higher mean return index (87.99) compared with Medvedev (51.80) — both differences are well above a 5-point threshold and bear on how points will be won. Looking at recent results, Medvedev has one win in Doha over Juncheng Shang (straight sets, 75 minutes) but lost his previous two matches (to Ugo Humbert in Rotterdam and Learner Tien at the Australian Open). Tsitsipas has mixed recent form as well: a straight-sets win in Doha over Moez Echargui, a prior loss to Botic van de Zandschulp, and a win over Arthur Rinderknech in Rotterdam. All listed matches were on hard courts, providing direct recent surface comparability.