Shanghai China Hard Masters 1000 Round of 16

Daniil Medvedev vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Prediction

Daniil Medvedev

Rank: #5
65%
VS

Stefanos Tsitsipas

Rank: #43
35%
Expected Total Games: 25.9
Predicted Winner: Daniil Medvedev

Why the Model Favors Daniil Medvedev

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Recent record by level +6.2 Daniil Medvedev
Surface fit +3.4 Daniil Medvedev
Serve & return game +3.2 Daniil Medvedev
Overall strength +2.9 Daniil Medvedev
Recent form +2.9 Daniil Medvedev

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 65% for Daniil Medvedev. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Daniil Medvedev

  • Current #5 2026-10-05
  • 3 mo ago #9 2026-06-29
  • 6 mo ago #10 2026-04-06
  • 9 mo ago #13 2026-01-05
  • 12 mo ago #18 2025-09-29

Stefanos Tsitsipas

  • Current #43 2026-10-05
  • 3 mo ago #87 2026-06-29
  • 6 mo ago #48 2026-04-06
  • 9 mo ago #34 2026-01-05
  • 12 mo ago #25 2025-09-29

Player Metrics

Daniil Medvedev

Form Index: 59.6
ELO Rating: 1909.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1911.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 186.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 47.7
Clay: 28.8
Grass: 24.1
Serve Rating: 96.8
Return Rating: 91.0

Stefanos Tsitsipas

Form Index: 70.0
ELO Rating: 1884.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1792.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 297.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 40.7
Clay: 28.1
Grass: 13.7
Serve Rating: 96.1
Return Rating: 85.9

Recent Matches

Daniil Medvedev
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

Stefanos Tsitsipas
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Daniil Medvedev
vs
1
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Hard
0 - 1
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Medvedev is favored at 65% to Tsitsipas’s 35%, with an expected 25.9 games in a competitive match. The forecast gives Medvedev a solid, but not overwhelming, advantage.

Match Analysis

Medvedev’s clearest strength is his return, which should put more pressure on Tsitsipas’s service games. He also has the stronger hard-court profile and overall record of results at this level, with a ranking of No. 5 compared with Tsitsipas at No. 43. Tsitsipas has a strong recent counterpoint, winning three straight matches in Shanghai, including a three-set victory over Taylor Fritz. Medvedev has won his last two matches here, against Struff and Svrcina, and has spent 111 fewer minutes on court during the tournament.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 25.9 Most likely outcome: 25 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Daniil Medvedev - Stefanos Tsitsipas) +1.3 Most likely spread: +1 (Daniil Medvedev wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Medvedev is projected to hit 9.2 aces and 3.7 double faults, while Tsitsipas is projected for 6.9 aces and 2.8 double faults. Their serve profiles are closely matched, though Medvedev has a slight edge, consistent with his higher ace estimate.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 15.4 Most likely: 14 aces Per player: Daniil Medvedev 9.2 + Stefanos Tsitsipas 6.9
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 6.5 Most likely: 5 double faults Per player: Daniil Medvedev 3.7 + Stefanos Tsitsipas 2.8

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Daniil Medvedev

Expected 9.2 aces

Stefanos Tsitsipas

Expected 6.9 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Daniil Medvedev

Expected 3.7 double faults

Stefanos Tsitsipas

Expected 2.8 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

45.2% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Daniil Medvedev's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (40.4%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Tsitsipas can upset the forecast if his serve keeps Medvedev from applying sustained pressure on return. His recent win over Fritz shows he has been able to manage a demanding opponent in Shanghai.

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