Los Cabos Mexico Hard Atp 250 Finals

Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Denis Shapovalov Prediction

Aleksandar Kovacevic

Rank: #76
44%
VS

Denis Shapovalov

Rank: #30
56%
Predicted Games Played: 24.0
Predicted Winner: Denis Shapovalov

Ranking Trends

Aleksandar Kovacevic

  • Current Rank: #76 (2025-06-30)
  • 3 Months Ago: #79 (2025-04-14)
  • 6 Months Ago: #109 (2025-01-13)
  • 9 Months Ago: #90 (2024-10-14)
  • 12 Months Ago: #91 (2024-07-15)

Denis Shapovalov

  • Current Rank: #30 (2025-06-30)
  • 3 Months Ago: #29 (2025-04-14)
  • 6 Months Ago: #56 (2025-01-13)
  • 9 Months Ago: #92 (2024-10-14)
  • 12 Months Ago: #139 (2024-07-15)

Player Metrics

Aleksandar Kovacevic

Form Index: 54.0
ELO Rating: 680.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1568.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 432.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 8.5
Clay: 4.4
Grass: 4.2
Serve Rating: 97.7
Return Rating: 85.5

Denis Shapovalov

Form Index: 54.1
ELO Rating: 1121.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1601.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 203.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 14.3
Clay: 7.6
Grass: 9.7
Serve Rating: 95.7
Return Rating: 86.1

Recent Matches

Aleksandar Kovacevic
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Andrey Rublev (2-1) hard Los Cabos 148 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Juan Pablo Ficovich (2-0) hard Los Cabos 80 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Luis Carlos Alvarez (2-0) hard Los Cabos 96 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Hady Habib (2-1) hard Los Cabos 108 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Marton Fucsovics (2-3) grass Wimbledon 174 min

Denis Shapovalov
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Adam Walton (2-0) hard Los Cabos 66 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Tristan Schoolkate (2-0) hard Los Cabos 77 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Govind Nanda (2-0) hard Los Cabos 60 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Mariano Navone (1-3) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Flavio Cobolli (1-2) grass Halle 153 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Aleksandar Kovacevic
vs
0
Denis Shapovalov
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The finals of the Los Cabos tournament in Mexico will see Aleksandar Kovacevic take on Denis Shapovalov on hard courts. The match promises to be competitive, with Shapovalov slightly favored to win, holding a probability of 56.46% compared to Kovacevic's 43.54%. The predicted total number of games played is estimated at 24.0.

Match Analysis

Denis Shapovalov currently ranks 30th with a form index of 54.14 and an Elo rating of 1121.47. His cumulative fatigue stands at 203 minutes, which is markedly lower than Kovacevic's 432 minutes. Shapovalov boasts a surface strength index of 14.28, indicating his adaptability on hard courts, while his mean serve index is 95.68, closely matched to Kovacevic’s index of 97.74. However, the mean return index shows a tighter gap, with Shapovalov at 86.13 compared to Kovacevic's 85.47, suggesting a balanced return game from both players. Kovacevic, ranked 76th, has shown significant resilience in Los Cabos, winning all three of his recent matches, including a notable victory against Andrey Rublev. His performance has included two-set wins in all matches, indicating his strong form. However, the toll of cumulative fatigue may impact his performance in the finals. Shapovalov similarly has a perfect record in his last three matches, showcasing dominant play with straight-set victories, including a recent match that lasted only 66 minutes. This efficiency in play may give Shapovalov a stamina advantage.

Final Prediction

Shapovalov's ranking, lower fatigue levels, and recent performances provide him with an edge going into the finals. A critical factor to watch will be the impact of Kovacevic's fatigue, which could affect his ability to maintain pressure throughout the match. As both players aim for the title, their ability to capitalize on service games will be pivotal.