Santiago Chile Clay Atp 250 Round of 32

Emilio Nava vs Matteo Berrettini: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Emilio Nava

Rank: #79
34%
VS

Matteo Berrettini

Rank: #57
66%
Expected Total Games: 23.6
Predicted Winner: Matteo Berrettini

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Ranking Trends

Emilio Nava

  • Current #79 2026-02-23
  • 3 mo ago #88 2025-11-24
  • 6 mo ago #101 2025-08-25
  • 9 mo ago #137 2025-05-26
  • 12 mo ago #238 2025-02-24

Matteo Berrettini

  • Current #57 2026-02-23
  • 3 mo ago #56 2025-11-24
  • 6 mo ago #52 2025-08-25
  • 9 mo ago #30 2025-05-26
  • 12 mo ago #30 2025-02-24

Player Metrics

Emilio Nava

Form Index: 27.7
ELO Rating: 664.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1526.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 5.4
Clay: 4.5
Grass: 4.9
Serve Rating: 71.8
Return Rating: 17.3

Matteo Berrettini

Form Index: 55.1
ELO Rating: 888.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1636.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 10.9
Clay: 9.0
Grass: 7.9
Serve Rating: 99.5
Return Rating: 88.4

Recent Matches

Emilio Nava
❌ ❌ ❌ ✅ ❌

Matteo Berrettini
❌ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Emilio Nava
vs
0
Matteo Berrettini
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This Round of 32 in Santiago, Chile is played on clay at a 250-level event. Matteo Berrettini is the predicted winner with a 65.68% chance, while Emilio Nava has a 34.32% probability; the model projects about 23.6 total games in the match.

Match Analysis

Emilio Nava comes in ranked 79 with a form index of 27.70 and an Elo of 664.89; his fatigue is 0.0 minutes on court and his surface strength index on clay is 4.50. Nava shows a solid mean serve index (71.77) but a low mean return index (17.29), indicating serving is his primary weapon while return play is a weakness. His last three matches include consecutive straight-set losses on clay (to Alejandro Tabilo and Mariano Navone) and a four-set loss at the Australian Open to Cameron Norrie. Matteo Berrettini is ranked 57 with a form index of 55.09 and a much higher Elo of 888.71; he also has 0.0 minutes fatigue and a surface strength index of 8.98. Berrettini’s mean serve index (99.52) is substantially higher than Nava’s (difference > 5 points), and his mean return index (88.44) far exceeds Nava’s (difference > 5 points), giving him a clear two-way edge statistically. Over his last three matches on clay in Rio he recorded two wins before a loss in his most recent match, with match durations indicating longer, more competitive encounters.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.6 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Emilio Nava - Matteo Berrettini) -0.6 Most likely spread: -1 (Matteo Berrettini wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this match is 10.95 total and the predicted aces are likely to be led by Berrettini given his much higher serve index. The expected double faults total is 5.02; on clay, slower ball speed and higher bounce typically suppress aces and can increase unforced serving errors, supporting this double faults prediction. Berrettini’s dominant serve rating should still boost the ace count relative to Nava despite the surface.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 10.9 Most likely: 10 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.0 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Berrettini’s higher Elo, stronger form and decisive advantages in both serve and return indices explain his projected edge. The key factor to watch is how effectively Berrettini’s serve translates to free points on clay and whether Nava can compensate with return pressure—if not, the match should tilt toward Berrettini.

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