Auckland New Zealand Hard Atp 250 Round of 32

Emilio Nava vs Sebastian Baez Prediction

Emilio Nava

Rank: #88
49%
VS

Sebastian Baez

Rank: #43
51%
Predicted Games Played: 23.0
Predicted Winner: Sebastian Baez

Player Metrics

Emilio Nava

Form Index: 61.9
ELO Rating: 687.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1533.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 178
Surface Strength:
Hard: 18.0
Clay: 13.7
Grass: 12.7
Serve Rating: 36.7
Return Rating: 39.8

Sebastian Baez

Form Index: 3.9
ELO Rating: 1145.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1669.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 25.6
Clay: 24.8
Grass: 29.6
Serve Rating: 51.2
Return Rating: 90.1

Recent Matches

Emilio Nava

  • Last Match: vs Jan-Lennard Struff (2-1) hard Auckland 101 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Patrick Kypson (2-0) hard Auckland 77 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Laslo Djere (0-2) hard Hong Kong 125 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Kai Thompson (2-0) hard Hong Kong 62 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Taylor Fritz (0-3) hard Us Open 174 min

Sebastian Baez

  • Last Match: vs Cameron Norrie (0-2) hard Paris 84 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Reilly Opelka (0-2) hard Basel 72 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Valentin Royer (0-2) hard Brussels 74 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Holger Rune (0-2) hard Shanghai 106 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Zhizhen Zhang (2-1) hard Shanghai 120 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Emilio Nava
vs
0
Sebastian Baez
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming match between Emilio Nava and Sebastian Baez takes place in the Round of 32 at the Auckland tournament, held on hard courts. The predicted winner is Sebastian Baez, with a probability of 51.11% to Emilio Nava's 48.89%. The anticipated total number of games played in this contest is projected to be around 23.

Match Analysis

Emilio Nava is currently ranked 88th, with a form index of 61.86 and an Elo rating of 687.59. His cumulative fatigue stands at 178 minutes from the current tournament, which may affect his performance. Notably, his surface strength index is 17.95, while his mean serve and return indices are 36.71 and 39.83, respectively. In contrast, Sebastian Baez, ranked 43rd with a significantly higher Elo rating of 1145.00, has a much lower fatigue level at zero minutes. Baez's surface strength index is 25.63, indicating a strong affinity for hard courts, and his mean serve index is 51.15, along with an impressive return index of 90.12. The difference in mean serve and return indices is greater than 5 points, favoring Baez, which may play a crucial role in the match dynamics. In their recent performances, Emilio Nava has shown some resilience, winning two out of his last three matches, including a hard-fought victory against Jan-Lennard Struff. However, he also faced a loss to Laslo Djere in Hong Kong. On the other hand, Sebastian Baez has struggled in his last three matches, failing to secure a win, including a straight-set loss to Cameron Norrie. Despite this recent slump, Baez's higher ranking and better statistics suggest a potential turnaround in form against Nava.

Final Prediction

Sebastian Baez holds an edge over Emilio Nava due to his higher ranking, better Elo rating, and superior serve and return capabilities. A critical factor to watch during the match will be how Nava manages his fatigue, as Baez's fresh legs could significantly impact the outcome.