Tokio Japan Hard Atp 500 Round of 32

Alex Michelsen vs Ethan Quinn Prediction

Alex Michelsen

Rank: #32
57%
VS

Ethan Quinn

Rank: #81
43%
Expected Total Games: 23.0
Predicted Winner: Alex Michelsen

Ranking Trends

Alex Michelsen

  • Current Rank: #32 (2025-09-15)
  • 3 Months Ago: #33 (2025-06-23)
  • 6 Months Ago: #33 (2025-03-17)
  • 9 Months Ago: #41 (2024-12-23)
  • 12 Months Ago: #49 (2024-09-23)

Ethan Quinn

  • Current Rank: #81 (2025-09-15)
  • 3 Months Ago: #95 (2025-06-23)
  • 6 Months Ago: #135 (2025-03-17)
  • 9 Months Ago: #202 (2024-12-23)
  • 12 Months Ago: #225 (2024-09-23)

Player Metrics

Alex Michelsen

Form Index: 26.9
ELO Rating: 1178.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1603.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 10.5
Clay: 9.3
Grass: 9.5
Serve Rating: 97.4
Return Rating: 88.8

Ethan Quinn

Form Index: 46.6
ELO Rating: 781.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1591.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 259.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 6.0
Clay: 6.9
Grass: 3.5
Serve Rating: 93.9
Return Rating: 85.4

Recent Matches

Alex Michelsen
❌ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Francisco Comesana (1-3) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Holger Rune (0-2) hard Cincinnati 93 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Corentin Moutet (2-1) hard Cincinnati 146 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Karen Khachanov (0-2) hard Toronto 104 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Learner Tien (2-0) hard Toronto 80 min

Ethan Quinn
✅ ✅ ❌ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Mattia Bellucci (2-1) hard Tokio 166 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Yuta Shimizu (2-0) hard Tokio 93 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Marcos Giron (0-2) hard Chengdu 90 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Jerome Kym (1-3) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Jakub Mensik (0-2) hard Cincinnati 72 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Alex Michelsen
vs
0
Ethan Quinn
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 32 at the ATP 500 tournament in Tokyo, Alex Michelsen is set to face Ethan Quinn on hard courts. With a projected win probability of 57.45% for Michelsen compared to 42.55% for Quinn, the predicted total number of games in this match is 23.0.

Match Analysis

Alex Michelsen, currently ranked 32, boasts a solid form index of 26.95 and an Elo rating of 1178.87. His surface strength index of 10.45 indicates a reasonable proficiency on hard courts, complemented by a mean serve index of 97.40, which is significantly higher than Quinn's mean serve index of 93.87. Michelsen also excels in returning serves with a mean return index of 88.76, exceeding Quinn’s return capability by over 3 points. This places Michelsen in a favorable position as he leverages his serving and returning strengths. On the other hand, Ethan Quinn, ranked 81, has a form index of 46.60 and an Elo rating of 781.07, reflecting a disparity in experience and performance. Quinn's cumulative fatigue of 259 minutes could impact his stamina and effectiveness, especially in a match against a more dynamic opponent like Michelsen. Quinn has shown resilience in his last three matches, winning two out of three, including a recent victory over Mattia Bellucci. However, his previous loss to Marcos Giron and Michelsen's mixed recent performances indicate that Michelsen may have a slight edge in terms of overall match readiness.

Final Prediction

Michelsen's stronger serving capabilities and superior return game give him a distinct advantage in this matchup. Additionally, Quinn's higher fatigue level could play a critical role in determining the match's outcome. Observing how Michelsen utilizes his serve and responds to Quinn's attacks will be key to the match dynamics.

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