Australian Open Australia Hard Grand Slam Round of 64

Kamil Majchrzak vs Fabian Marozsan: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Kamil Majchrzak

Rank: #58
35%
VS

Fabian Marozsan

Rank: #52
65%
Expected Total Games: 38.0
Predicted Winner: Fabian Marozsan

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Player Metrics

Kamil Majchrzak

Form Index: 66.6
ELO Rating: 897.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1559.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 174.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 6.1
Clay: 5.7
Grass: 7.9
Serve Rating: 65.5
Return Rating: 68.4

Fabian Marozsan

Form Index: 72.6
ELO Rating: 1137.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1608.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 174.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 34.1
Clay: 29.2
Grass: 24.2
Serve Rating: 98.1
Return Rating: 93.5

Recent Matches

Kamil Majchrzak

Fabian Marozsan

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Kamil Majchrzak
vs
0
Fabian Marozsan
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming match between Kamil Majchrzak and Fabian Marozsan at the Australian Open marks an exciting clash in the Round of 64. Both players will compete on hard courts, offering a balanced surface that can favor both aggressive servers and adept returners. The predicted winner is Fabian Marozsan, with a win probability of 65.12% compared to Kamil Majchrzak's 34.88%. The expected total number of games in this match is approximately 37.95.

Match Analysis

Kamil Majchrzak currently ranks 58th with a form index of 66.56 and an Elo rating of 897.72. His cumulative fatigue from the tournament stands at 174 minutes, and he has a surface strength index of 6.07, indicating moderate performance on hard courts. In contrast, Fabian Marozsan is ranked 52nd, showcasing a stronger form index of 72.58 and a significantly higher Elo rating of 1137.30. His fatigue level is also 174 minutes, but he possesses a much higher surface strength index of 34.11, indicating better adaptability to hard courts. Notably, Marozsan's mean serve index of 98.14 is well above Majchrzak’s 65.54, highlighting his superior serving capability. Furthermore, Marozsan's mean return index of 93.47 surpasses Majchrzak's 68.36, suggesting he is more adept at capitalizing on service games. In their recent performances, Majchrzak has had mixed results, winning two out of his last three matches, including a hard-fought victory against Jacob Fearnley at the Australian Open. Conversely, Marozsan has also won two out of his last three matches, with a notable win against Arthur Rinderknech in the current tournament, demonstrating his competitive edge.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 38.0 Most likely outcome: 37 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Kamil Majchrzak versus Fabian Marozsan. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Kamil Majchrzak versus Fabian Marozsan. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Kamil Majchrzak - Fabian Marozsan) -0.5 Most likely spread: -1 (Fabian Marozsan wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Kamil Majchrzak versus Fabian Marozsan. Positive values indicate Kamil Majchrzak winning more games, negative values indicate Fabian Marozsan winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Kamil Majchrzak versus Fabian Marozsan. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The match is expected to see around 24.44 aces, reflecting the balance of serving styles on hard courts. With Marozsan's superior serve index, he may significantly contribute to the ace count. The expected double faults prediction stands at approximately 6.58, which is reasonable given the hard surface that typically leads to a moderate number of service errors.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 24.4 Most likely: 24 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 6.6 Most likely: 6 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Kamil Majchrzak versus Fabian Marozsan. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Kamil Majchrzak versus Fabian Marozsan. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Kamil Majchrzak versus Fabian Marozsan. Clay surface matches tend to produce more double faults due to fatigue in longer rallies.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Kamil Majchrzak versus Fabian Marozsan. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

Final Prediction

Fabian Marozsan is favored to win due to his stronger serving and returning capabilities, as indicated by the statistical differences in their serve and return indices. A key factor to watch will be how effectively Majchrzak can handle Marozsan's powerful serves, as this will likely dictate the flow of the match.

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