Rotterdam Netherlands Hard Atp 500 Semifinals

Alexander Bublik vs Felix Auger-Aliassime: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Alexander Bublik

Rank: #10
43%
VS

Felix Auger-Aliassime

Rank: #8
57%
Expected Total Games: 24.4
Predicted Winner: Felix Auger-Aliassime

Ranking Trends

Alexander Bublik

  • Current Rank: #10 (2026-02-02)
  • 3 Months Ago: #11 (2025-11-10)
  • 6 Months Ago: #27 (2025-08-04)
  • 9 Months Ago: #76 (2025-05-05)
  • 12 Months Ago: #48 (2025-02-10)

Felix Auger-Aliassime

  • Current Rank: #8 (2026-02-02)
  • 3 Months Ago: #8 (2025-11-10)
  • 6 Months Ago: #28 (2025-08-04)
  • 9 Months Ago: #27 (2025-05-05)
  • 12 Months Ago: #22 (2025-02-10)

Player Metrics

Alexander Bublik

Form Index: 73.9
ELO Rating: 2972.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1671.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 429.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 17.7
Clay: 22.0
Grass: 23.3
Serve Rating: 78.6
Return Rating: 34.3

Felix Auger-Aliassime

Form Index: 71.5
ELO Rating: 4062.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1687.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 286.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 28.8
Clay: 31.9
Grass: 32.8
Serve Rating: 98.5
Return Rating: 87.4

Recent Matches

Alexander Bublik
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Jaume Munar (2-1) hard Rotterdam 162 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Jan-Lennard Struff (2-1) hard Rotterdam 125 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Hubert Hurkacz (2-1) hard Rotterdam 142 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Alex de Minaur (0-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Tomas Martin Etcheverry (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min

Felix Auger-Aliassime
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Tallon Griekspoor (2-0) hard Rotterdam 104 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Hamad Medjedovic (2-0) hard Rotterdam 90 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Alexei Popyrin (2-0) hard Rotterdam 92 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Adrian Mannarino (2-0) hard Montpellier 95 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Titouan Droguet (2-1) hard Montpellier 147 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Alexander Bublik
vs
2
Felix Auger-Aliassime
Hard
0 - 2
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Rotterdam semifinal (Netherlands), a hard-court match at a 500-level event, pits Alexander Bublik against Felix Auger-Aliassime. The model favors Felix as the projected winner (56.61% vs Bublik 43.39%), with an expected 24.42 total games in the match.

Match Analysis

Bublik arrives ranked 10 with a form index of 73.9 and an Elo of 2972.6; his cumulative fatigue at this event is high (429 minutes). His surface strength index on hard courts is modest (17.66) and his mean return index is relatively low (34.30). Bublik’s recent run shows three straight wins in Rotterdam, each decided in three sets (matches of 162, 125 and 142 minutes), indicating resilience but also heavier court time. Auger-Aliassime is ranked 8, with a form index of 71.5 and a substantially higher Elo (4062.0). He has spent less time on court this week (286 minutes), a higher surface strength index (28.84) and markedly stronger serving and returning numbers. The difference in mean serve index is >5 points (Felix 98.46 vs Bublik 78.63), and the mean return index gap is also large (Felix 87.40 vs Bublik 34.30), both favoring Felix. Felix’s three wins this week are straight sets and shorter (104, 90, 92 minutes), suggesting fresher legs and cleaner performance.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 24.4 Most likely outcome: 24 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction points to about 10.06 total aces in the match, while the double faults prediction is around 5.63 expected double faults. On a medium-paced hard court, predicted aces are moderate — the surface rewards both big servers and strong returners — and Felix’s substantially higher serve rating should push the ace count up. Given his serve advantage, Felix is likely to contribute a larger share of the predicted aces while keeping Bublik’s return opportunities limited.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 10.1 Most likely: 10 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.6 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Felix’s edge comes from a superior Elo, markedly better serve and return indices, and lower fatigue from shorter recent matches. The key factor to watch is Felix’s ability to convert his return dominance into breaks against Bublik’s powerful serve.

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